早晨洞察：2026年5月26日

Morning Insight:May 26, 2026 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Polyester:Under expectations of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz,valuations across the polyester chain have corrected sharply. The overall Within the chain, attention should focus on structural opportunities suchas long PF/short PTA positions driven by expanding polyester staple fiber On the supply side, PX maintenance during May consistently fell short ofmarket expectations. Against the backdrop of marginally looser naphtha For MEG, maintenance shutdowns at Hainan Refining and Wuhan Petrochemicalwere carried out this week, while attention remains on potential impacts However, a sustained upward trend will still require visible downstream toward downstream order conditions during June. Alumina:Attention should focus on the potential impact of the Shanxicoal mine accident, which has boosted short-term trading sentiment in the significant scale of this coal mine incident—combined with Shanxi’simportance as a major alumina and bauxite-producing region in China— From a near-term fundamental perspective, however, both port bauxiteinventories and alumina plant inventories remain relatively high, whilethe market’s ability to secure bauxite supply is still relatively strong. That said, the overall alumina supply-demand balance for this year stillpoints toward an oversupplied market structure. In addition, Guinea hasrecently refrained from signaling any strong tightening stance toward As a result, the prevailing medium-term strategy for alumina remainsselling into rallies. If the Shanxi coal mine incident drives another Glass:The market is expected to remain range-bound with a slightlyfirmer bias, and caution is advised for short positions established at The primary near-term bullish factor is that market positioning in glassfutures remains near historical highs, while both absolute prices and At the same time, bearish arguments remain valid. Demand conditionscontinue to appear weak, the property sector remains under pressure, and Looking ahead, price levels below RMB 950–1,000/tonne may becomeincreasingly favorable for long positioning. However, if futures prices Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. China's total installed power-generating capacity reached 3.99 billion From January to April, the installed capacity of solar power continued togrow, up 26.2 percent year on year to 1.25 billion kW, according to the The installed capacity of wind power also posted strong growth during the In the first four months of the year, China's total power use exceeded3.33 trillion kilowatt-hours, up 5.4 percent year on year. (Source: 2. The central parity rate of the Chinese currency renminbi, or the yuan,strengthened 55 pips to 6.8318 against the U.S. dollar Monday, according 3. China will release data on foreign trade in goods for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) as a whole, as part of broader The move is included in a package of 20 measures recently unveiled by theGeneral Administration of Customs to support the development of the GBA, Currently, trade data for the region's mainland cities, Hong Kong andMacao, are compiled separately under different statistical systems, Chinese mainland customs authorities will work with counterparts in HongKong and Macao to study and compile aggregate data on trade in goods for the General Administration of Customs. The data will support more accurate analysis of trade trends andstructure in the region, while giving the public a more complete picture The GBA, one of China's most open and vibrant economic hubs, has shownstrong resilience and vitality in foreign trade. In the first four months Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consultingbusiness in the futures market, as approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (Approval No. [2011]1449). The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely Disclaimer The information in this report is derived from publicly available sources, but the Company does not guarantee the accuracy,cohesiveness, or reliability of such information.