2026年4月拉丁美洲和加勒比宏观贫困展望：发展中国家的国别分析和预测

This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclu-sions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work and does notassume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use of orfailure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, links/footnotes and other information shown in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be alimitation uponor waiver of the privileges and Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, thiswork may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Allqueries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications,The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. ARGENTINA Substantial progress in restoring macroeconomic stabilitythrough fiscal consolidation and exchange rate reforms.Growth rebounded to 4.4 percent in 2025 and is projectedat 3.6 percent in 2026. Inflation is declining. Poverty haseased, though high informality and inequality constrain in- low-productivityactivities,including self-employment and plat-form-based delivery work. While the poverty rate fell from 16.4 per-cent in 2023 to 15.2 in 2024 (at the US$8.30 per day, 2021 PPP Key conditions and challenges Argentina’s recent efforts to address long-standing macroeconom-ic imbalances provide a more stable platform for economic recov-ery and poverty reduction. The country benefits from abundantnatural resources, a relatively skilled labor force, and comparativeadvantages in agro-industry and services. However, decades of Looking ahead, the key challenge is to consolidate macroeconomicstabilizationwhile advancing structural reforms that supportgrowth. Strengthening fiscal and external buffers, improving fiscal The current economic program aims to restore macroeconomic sta-bility through fiscal consolidation, the gradual normalization of theexchange rate and capital account regime, and the removal of distor-tionary regulations. Nonetheless, the economy remains exposed to Recent developments Real GDP grew by 4.4 percent in 2025, largely reflecting a favorableend-2024 base effect, alongside a gradual recovery in domestic de-mand and investment in energy, agriculture, and mining. Growth wastempered by the political cycle, with mid-term elections in October.Progress in strengthening fiscal and external sustainability supported Argentina’shousehold welfare reflects the contrast betweenlower inflation and weak job creation concentrated in informal, Fiscal consolidation remains a central pillar of the economic pro-gram. Expenditure restrained supported an overall fiscal surplus of0.2 percent of GDP in 2025 at the Central Government, despite theelimination of the PAIS tax—a temporary tax on foreign exchange risk, as informal sector wages have been lagging inflation in recentmonths. Inequality remains high—the Gini coefficient at 0.42 un-derscores persistent disparities. Poverty is estimated to have fallento 14.7 in 2025 (US$8.30/day, 2021 PPP), as first-semester disinfla- Outlook To strengthen external sustainability, the government introduced anexchange rate band with crawling adjustments and a phased lifting ofcapital controls in April. The new regime helped close the foreign ex-change gap and reduced volatility. However, increased dollarizationahead of the October elections—estimated at around 50 percent ofbroad money (M2)—tightened monetary conditions, requiring tem- Real GDP is projected to grow by 3.6 percent in 2026, driven by arecovery in private consumption and sustained strength in invest-ment and exports. A favorable agricultural season and large-scaleinvestments in oil, gas, and mining will support tradables, while im-proved macro stability should bolster domestic demand. Fiscal dis- Fiscal consolidation is expected to continue in 2026, with a pro-jected primary surplus of about 1.6 percent of GDP, supported bystronger revenues and continued expenditure restraint. A consis-tent fiscal and monetary program should place public debt on a de-clining path, reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio to about 65 percent by The Peso depreciated by 29 percent in 2025, correcting accumu-lated real exchange rate misalignments. While inflation declinedsharply in 2024, monthly inflation began rising gradually from 1.5percent in April 2025 to 2.9 percent by January 2026. Pass-throug