2026年4月南亚宏观贫困展望：发展中国家的国别分析和预测

This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclu-sions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work and does notassume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use of orfailure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, links/ Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be alimitation uponor waiver of the privileges and Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, thiswork may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Allqueries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications,The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. BANGLADESH GDP growth is projected to remain subdued in FY26 due tothe impact of the Middle East conflict, elevated inflation, andweak investment amid persistent financial sector vulnerabili-ties. Poverty increased by 1.4 million between FY24–25, withthe conflict projected to push an additional 1.2 million into diversification, inadequate human capital, and vulnerability toclimate and external shocks. Key conditions and challenges A newly elected government, led by the Bangladesh NationalistParty (BNP), assumed office in February 2026. The governmenthas inherited several macroeconomic challenges, including slowingeconomic growth, elevated inflation, constrained fiscal space, vul- Recent developments The conflict in the Middle East has started to weigh on the econ-omy. Even before the conflict, economic activity over the past 6months remained constrained by elevated inflation and weak in-vestmentamid pre-election political uncertainty,high interestrates, and elevated production costs. Banking sector vulnerabilitiescontinued, with the non-performing loans ratio increasing to 30.6percent in December 2025 from 20.2 percent in December 2024, Labor market conditions remain weak, with job creation insuffi-cient to absorb new entrants, employment shifting back towardagriculture, and female labor force participation falling sharply to38.4 percent in 2024, narrowing the productivity dividend that Bangladesh faces significant medium- to long-term challengesrelating to low domestic resource mobilization, a weak financial Inflation remained elevated at 9.1 percent in February 2026, al-though moderating from the FY25 average of 10 percent. Monetary at 10 percent since October 2024. The conflict is projected to raisethe poverty rate to 8.7 percent at the US$3.0 line in FY26 from 8.0percent with nearly 600,000 jobs expected to be lost due to the on-going conflict. Rising prices account for around 10 percent of the deficit is also expected to widen compared to FY25 despite im-provements in revenue, as current expenditure is projected to risedue to higher fuel subsidy requirements resulting from the Mid-dle East conflict, the recapitalization of the banking sector, and the The current account balance turned into a deficit of US$343 millionin the first half of FY26, led by declining exports as global tradeuncertainty continued to dampen external demand. However, re-mittances growth remained robust at 18 percent, boosting foreignexchange reserves to nearly 3.8 months of prospective imports(US$30.3 billion) in February 2026. Total domestic revenue is ex- Growth is expected to rise moderately to 4.6 percent in FY27, butremain constrained by spillovers from the Middle East conflict andexisting structural challenges in the economy. It is projected toreach 5.3 percent in FY28, supported by a modest recovery in pri-vate and public investment. However, medium-term growth will Risks are significantly tilted to the downside. If prolonged, theMiddleEast conflict could further widen the current accountdeficit,reduce remittance inflows,keep inflation elevated,in-crease subsidy pressures, and weigh on growth. Further weaken-ing of the banking sector and trade disruptions from the MiddleEast conflict and global policy uncertainty could further dampen Outlook Real GDP growth for FY26 has been revised downwards to 3.9 per-cent from 4.6 percent (Global Economic Prospects, January 2026),reflecting the impact of the Middle East conflict and ongoing do-mestic economic challenges. The Middle East conflict is also expect-ed to impact on the current account deficit, which is projected to BHUTAN Growth accelerated to 8.1 percent in FY24/25, driven bynew hydropower projects and tourism recovery, but youthunemployment rema