灾后国际货币基金组织融资的宏观财政影响：来自综合控制方法的证据

The Macro-Fiscal Impactsof Post-Disaster IMFFinancing: Evidence from Pedro Juarros and Junko Mochizuki WP/26/91 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are 2026MAY IMF Working PaperFiscal Affairs Department Authorized for distribution by Dora Benedek IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the ABSTRACT:The IMF provides macro-stabilizing liquidity when others cannot. The IMF has developed a set ofinstruments designed to provide rapid financial assistance to countries facing urgent balance of payments needswithout requiring a full-fledged economic program, triggered by exogenous natural disasters shocks. We evaluate the WORKING PAPERS The Macro-Fiscal Impacts of Post-Disaster IMF Financing: Evidence Prepared byPedro Juarros and Junko Mochizuki Contents Introduction.........................................................................................................................................................3 Beyond GDP: The Macro-Fiscal Impacts of IMF Post-Disaster Financing..................................................17 Final Comments................................................................................................................................................20 Annex I. Donor Pool..........................................................................................................................................21 Annex III. Robustness.......................................................................................................................................23 References.........................................................................................................................................................28 FIGURES 1. Output Gains of IMF-Post Disaster Financing.................................................................................................102. Robustness.....................................................................................................................................................143. Cumulative GDP Growth 3 Years After Disaster: Actual vs IMF Forecast Recovery......................................154. Exploring the Macro-Fiscal Channels.............................................................................................................19 TABLES 1. IMF Post-Disaster Financing Programs 2002–2019.........................................................................................72. Disaster Risk Financing Instruments at Time of Disaster...............................................................................16 Introduction The International Monetary Fund (IMF) provides timely, predictable, and subsidized liquidity to helpstabilize macroeconomic conditions when market access is lost or severely constrained.As thefrequency and impact of natural disasters grow, the urgency for timely and effective post-disaster financing hasbecome increasingly critical. When a large natural disaster shock occurs, timely and effective external financingis critical to supportthe recovery, stabilize macroeconomic conditions, and avoid disorderly adjustments andlong-lasting scarring. While long-term adaptation and resilience-building are essential, even well-preparedcountries face temporary liquidity shortages when natural disaster shocks hit. The IMF’s Emergency NaturalDisaster Assistance (ENDA), Rapid Credit Facility (RCF, exclusively for low income countries) and Rapid Between 2001 and 2019, the IMF approved 19 standalone post-disaster financing programs in 16countries (mostly Small Island Developing States, SIDS), with average financing equivalent to 0.9percent of GDP.Since the RCF and RFI replaced ENDA in 2009 and 2011, respectively, the frequency andscale of such programs have increased. Notably, about 70 percent of these programs (13 out of 19) wereapproved between 2010 and 2019, with average financing rising to 1percent of GDP and reaching as high as 3percentof GDP.1Despite the increasing use of these instruments, particularly through the dedicated natural To address these questions, we use a synthetic control method that restricts the sample to events withcomparable macroeconomic dynamics, disaster-related damages, and economic structure (i.e. SIDS). Our findings show that rapid IMF financing after a natural disaster shock has large positive recovery effectsthrough both liquidity provision and catalytic effects, enabling countercyclical fiscal responses via higher deficits This paper fills that gap by estimating the macroeconomic effects of IMF post-disaster financing, usinga synthetic control method (SCM) (Abadie et al.(2010);Kuruc(2022)).A major challenge in assessing the macroeconomic effects of IMF programs is selecti