Kazakhstan's wheat and barley production are expected to decline sharply in MY 2026/27 due to weather conditions and farmer preferences for oilseeds. Wheat area harvested is forecast at 11.5 million hectares, nearly unchanged from the previous year but down significantly from two seasons ago. Production is expected to drop to 14.0 million metric tons (MMT) due to weather-related delays in planting and a hot, dry growing season. Barley area harvested is expected to expand to 2.4 million hectares, but production will contract to 3.1 MMT due to similar weather conditions.
Consumption of both wheat and barley is expected to decline year-to-year. Wheat consumption is forecast at 8.5 MMT, while barley consumption is expected to fall to 1.7 MMT.
Exports of wheat and barley are expected to decrease due to lower production levels. Wheat exports are forecast to fall to 7.5 MMT, while barley exports are expected to decline to 1.5 MMT.
Kazakhstan has banned imports of Russian feed grains due to animal disease concerns, which will lead to lower imports of both wheat and barley. Wheat imports are forecast to decrease to 100,000 MT, and barley imports are expected to fall to 5,000 MT.
Ending wheat stocks are forecast to shrink by more than 40 percent to about 1.8 MMT, while barley stocks are expected to drop by almost half to about 100,000 MT.
