Kazakhstan’s MY 2025/26 wheat production is forecast to decline sharply from the previous year’s record due to farmers shifting to more profitable oilseeds, particularly sunflowers. This shift, along with economic pressures making it difficult for farmers to purchase inputs, has led to reduced wheat and barley production. Consequently, exports of wheat and barley are expected to be lower than in the previous year. However, due to the plentiful MY 2024/25 grain crop and government transportation subsidies, wheat and barley exports are anticipated to reach record levels during this period.
Wheat Production:
- MY 2025/26 wheat production is forecast at 13.8 million metric tons (MMT), a significant drop from last year's bumper crop.
- The reduction is primarily due to farmers planting fewer acres of wheat and more oilseeds like sunflowers.
- Area harvested is projected to be 12.4 million hectares, with yields forecast at about 1.11 MT per hectare.
- The Ministry of Agriculture announced its MY 2025/26 planted area predictions, showing a contraction in wheat production and increases in other crop categories.
- Favorable weather conditions are expected, but yields are anticipated to decline year-to-year due to financial constraints on farmers.
Barley Production:
- MY 2025/26 barley planted area is forecast at 2.3 million hectares, almost unchanged from last year.
- Production is predicted to fall year-on-year to 3.0 MMT due to a reduction in yields to more normal levels.
- Spring barley accounts for over 99 percent of Kazakhstan’s total barley production, primarily feed-grade quality.
Consumption:
- MY 2025/26 wheat consumption is forecast to decrease to 7.5 MMT, with feed wheat consumption accounting for most of the decline.
- MY 2025/26 barley consumption is forecast to slightly decrease from last year to 2.0 MMT, mostly for on-farm animal feed and malting.
Trade:
- MY 2025/26 wheat exports are forecast to be 7.5 MMT, down 2.5 MMT from the previous year.
- MY 2024/25 wheat exports are estimated at 10.0 MMT, the second highest on record, driven by the bumper harvest and government subsidies.
- The government-owned Food Corporation (FC) is shipping wheat to new export markets, including Morocco and Vietnam.
- The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) FTA with Iran, which created duty-free tariff rate quotas (TRQs) for wheat and barley, is expected to facilitate more grain exports to Iran.
Stocks:
- MY 2025/26 wheat stocks are projected to fall by more than half from last year to about 1.0 MT.
- MY 2024/25 wheat stock estimate is cut to 2.1 MMT based on strong export performance and a downward revision to production.
- Licensed warehouses in Kazakhstan are at less than one-quarter of their carrying capacity.
Wheat Prices:
- Wheat prices have been trending higher since January, with the EXW price for class 3, food quality wheat in North Kazakhstan, Kostanay, and Akmola regions increasing from $106/MT in January to $176/MT in June.
- In June, Russian wheat was selling at $227/MT FOB, while comparable quality Kazakh wheat for export was averaging $205/MT FOB.
Barley Prices:
- Barley EXW prices in North Kazakhstan, Kostanay, and Akmola regions climbed from $104/MT in January to a record of $171/MT in April before softening to $166/MT in mid-June.
- In June, the FOB price of barley delivered to the Chinese border was $215/MT, while the FOB price to Aktau, Caspian Sea was $230-235/MT.
