Ethiopia’s wheat production is projected to reach 7.0 million MT in MY 2026/27, an eight percent increase from the previous year, driven by expanded irrigation, wider adoption of improved seed, and continued development of cluster farming and mechanization. Commercial wheat imports are forecast at 1.4 million MT due to tight domestic supplies and steady demand. The country’s wheat consumption is expected to grow to 8.2 million MT, reflecting rising demand for wheat as a staple food driven by population growth and urbanization. The wheat milling industry, concentrated in Addis Ababa and regional cities, faces challenges such as high input costs and inconsistent supply, leading to reliance on imported wheat from the Black Sea market. Domestic wheat prices have increased significantly due to higher demand and currency depreciation, while imported wheat remains competitively priced. Ethiopia is not expected to export wheat in MY 2026/27, but ending stocks are forecast to rise to 1.18 million MT, supported by increased production and imports.
Corn production is projected to expand to 10.5 million MT in MY 2026/27, driven by yield increases, the easing of export restrictions, and greater access to regional markets under the AfCFTA. Sorghum production is expected to improve to 4.1 million MT under the National Sorghum Development Flagship Program. Barley production is forecast to rise to 2.5 million MT as both multinational and local brewers and malt factories increase investments. However, millet output is projected to fall 15.6 percent to 950,000 MT due to reduced area. Higher input costs and currency depreciation continue to push domestic grain prices upward. The Ethiopian government’s relaxation of export restrictions on staple grains and plan to establish national grain reserve stocks are expected to strengthen market integration and support domestic production growth.
