德州仪器（TXN）：2026年第一季度回顾 - 开箱即出彩

+12135595917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.comAlrick Shaw +1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com Market-PerformPrice Target +1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com @ TXN Texas Instruments (TXN): Q126 recap - 0ut of the box... $1.38) with continued industrial recovery and datacenter upside (up 30% YoY and 90% YoY,respectively); Auto and PE offset this somewhat (up MSD and flat YoY,respectively).Analog,EmbeddedandOtherwereallaboveconsensusexpectations.Grossmargins(58%)were~2oObpsaboveexpectationsonbetterrevenue,strongendmarketmixandpricing;EPSwaswell above (even witha 5cent discretetax benefit notin guidance). Q2guidancewasverystrongaswell($5.20B/$1.91/~60%vsStreet$4.85B/$1.57/57.2%), seasonal to perhaps a touch above (off the higher Q1 base) with similardrivers (industrial, datacenter etc). Capex was reiterated at in the $2-$3Brange for the year(vs ~$4.6B in 2025). The analog recoveryappears to be picking up steam in industrial,andof coursedatacenter(power etc) is unsurprisingly strong; in that backdrop there was not much to nitpick, and thegeneral story (namely cyclical recovery and datacenter narrative,withFCF accelerating ascapexcomesdownYoY)isprobablygoingtobeviewedas increasinglycompelling. Thatbeing said,we haveperhaps seen this movie before,andthecompanythemselvesseems toremember their missteps in a similar environmentthis timelastyear,withmanagementcommentary suggesting somehesitancetofullybuy into sustainabilityfornow(it feels like they wantto see at least onemore quarter,prudent in our opinion givenpotentialfor pull-forward, risks to PE markets in the 2H on memory dynamics, and what still appeartobe somewhatlackluster automotivetrends).And even with numbers goingup the sharesremain fairly pricey. We seethe companyout of thepenaltyboxat leastbut preferto look elsewherefornow.Raising estimates, PT to $250 (30x, unchanged, on FY27E EPS), maintain MP rating. InvestmentImplications TXN (MP, $250): TXN shares feel fully valued in the current environment. TexasInstruments'Q1resultswerequitestrong($4,825M/$1.68vsStreetat$4,518M/$1.38)withcontinued industrial recoveryanddatacenterupside.Industrialgrew>20%QoQandwasup>30%YoYwithDatacenterup>25%QoQandup~90%YoYandCommsEquipmentup>30%QoQand~25%YoY.AutoandPEoffsetthissomewhat,withAutoflatQoQandupMSD%YoY,andPEup~LSD%QoQandflatYoY.Analog,EmbeddedandOtherwereallaboveconsensusexpectations.Grossmarginswere~2oobpsaboveexpectationsonbetterrevenue,strongendmarketmixandpricingwhichwasstableQoQ (vs.typicallyslightlydowninQ1).EPSwaswellaboveconsensusdrivenbystrongerrevenueand lowerexpensesaswellaslowertaxes. guidance $4,500M/$1.35) (Exhibit 1).Analog,EmbeddedandOtherwereallaboveexpectations(Exhibit2).Analog sales of $3,924Mwereup~9% QoQand up~22%YoY (Exhibit5).Operatingmargins for the segment were 41.7%,up~315bpsQoQ..EmbeddedProcessingsalesof$723Mwereup~9%QoQandup~12%YoY(Exhibit5).Segmentoperatingmarginscameinat16.9%,up~615bpsQoQ.OtherRevenuesof$178Mgrew~22%QoQandweredown~16%YoY(Exhibit5).Operatingmarginswere27.0%forthequarter.Ona sequential basis,Industrial revenuewas up>20%,Autowas~flat,Personal Electronicswas up LSD%,Datacenter wasup>25%andCommsEquipmentwasup>30%,respectively.OnaYoYbasis,Datacentergrewthefastest(~90%),followedby Industrial (>30%), Comms equip (~25%), Auto (up ~MSD%), and PE (~flat) (Exhibit 6).Grossmarginswere58.0%vs55.9%lastquarter(Exhibit7),andwere~190bpsabovestreet expectationsof56.1%duetohigher revenue,favorable end market mix and pricing which was flat QoQ vs.typically down Exhibit 8).Opexforthequartercameinat$974M(excludingacquisitionexpensesof$17M),belowourestimate($996M)andbelowconsensus ($996M),and closerto expectations ifone includes the acquisition costs. Q2 guidance was well above Street expectations on revenues, gross margins, and EPS ($5.20B/$1.91/~60% vsStreet$4.85B/$1.57/57.2%),seasonaltoperhapsatouchabove(offthehigherQ1base)withsimilardrivers TXNseesQ226at$5.20B/$1.91,well aboveStreetexpectationsonrevenuesandEPSwithStreetat$4,846M/$1.57(Exhibit9).Revenues are seen up ~8% sequentially,seasonal to perhaps a bit above, off the higher Q1 base (Exhibit 4).Gross margins appear implicitly guided at ~60% or so (Exhibit 10, Exhibit 11), well above consensus (57.2%).:Opex is expected tobeup~LSD% QoQ (suggesting~$1B excluding acquisition charges,slightly below consensusexpectationsof$1,032M)..EPS was guided to $1.91 at the midpoint, well above the Street at $1.57on higher revenues and margins.The company suggested continued growth in industrial (which at this point has recovered significantly, but is still~15%below the 2022 peak) as well as likely continued strength in Datacenter which saw 25%+ sequential growth in Q1.Capexfortheyear wasreiterated to landbetween$2B-$3B,downmarkedlyYoY (thoughas expected)withcapexfocusshifting to assembly andtest equipment. 2027thoughataslowerpaceTheanalogrecoveryappearstobepickingupsteam inindustrial,and of coursedatacenter(power etc)is unsurprisinglystrong; inthatbackdroptherewasnotmuchtonit