Meta Platforms：AI驱动的收入增长可以持续

EquitiesInternet Software & Services Buy:AI-driven revenue growth can continue United States ◆Q1 resultsout on 29 April; companyguides revenue growthof 26-34% y-o-y after 24% in Q4; consensus +31% MAINTAINBUY TARGET PRICE(USD)PREVIOUS TARGET(USD)905.00905.00SHARE PRICE(USD)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE688.55+31.4%(as of17 Apr 2026) ◆We expect CEO to bemore precise about LLM strategy afterthe launch of new closed-source model ◆Retain Buy, TP USD905.00(unchanged): AI investmentcankeepdriving ad-revenueand supportsmart glasses,too Q126resultson 29 April:Meta will report its Q1 26 resultson 29 April 2026postUS market close.Duringthe Q4 resultscall(28 January 2026), Meta gave Q126revenue guidance ofUSD53.5-56.5bn, implying 26-33.5% y-o-y growth (Visible Alphaconsensus: USD55.4bn, +31% y-o-y)after +24% in Q4. For the full year 2026, Metaguided total expenses of USD162-169bn (consensusUSD164bn),operatingincomeabove FY 15a levels (cons: +4% y-o-y)and capex of USD115-135bn (consensusUSD125bn).Welookat consensus change since Q4 25 results (page3). It's all aboutadvertising:Meta’sdouble-digit advertising revenue growthis supportedby their AI investment and their capacity to leverage the first-party data theyarecollecting across their apps.Earlier this month,Meta announced its most powerfulclosed-source Large Language Model (LLM) to date,Muse Spark,itsfirstAImodeldevelopedsince the launch ofthe newly formedSuperintelligence Labs.We lookforward tohearingfrom Meta how thislatestmodel can be monetisedthroughsupporting advertising automationand if it can reinforce its moat in digital advertisingeventually.This,in our view,is important at a time when OpenAI is starting totestitsLLM surface with advertising in the US with press reporting their ambition to achieveUSD100bn of advertising revenue in 2030from USD2.5bn in 2026 (Axios, 9 April 2026). Butit’salso about silicon:Meta continues deploying a vertically integratedstrategy. Ithassignedmultiple agreements, includingaUSD21bn agreement withCoreWeave for AI cloud capacity through 2032anda multi-year partnership withAMD to deploy up to 6GWof AMD Instinct GPUs.On 14 April, Meta entered into astrategic partnership with Broadcom to co-design custom MTIA (Meta Training andInference Accelerator) chips through 2029, using the latter’s XPU technology.Thedeal includes an initial deployment of over 1GW of MTIA capacity. NicolasCote-Colisson*MD, Head of Global Tech PlatformsHSBC Continental Europenicolas.cote-colisson@hsbcib.com+44 20 7991 6826 Mohammed Khallouf*, CFAGlobal Tech Platforms AnalystHSBC Bank Middle East Ltd, DIFCmohammed.khallouf@hsbc.com+971 4 509 3337 Retain Buy, TP USD905 (unchanged):We value Metaat USD905 (31.4%impliedupside),using a target FY 26e PE of25x(in line with global peer average),applied toour 2026e non-GAAP EPS estimate of USD38.5, to which we add a regulatory riskdiscount of 5% given recurring pressure from global regulators.We rate the stockBuy as advertising activity remains strong, supported by AI. Sonam Chamaria*AssociateBangalore * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Issuer of report:HSBC Continental Europe Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC GlobalInvestment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Financials & valuation:Meta Platforms Q1 26company guidance During Meta’s Q4 25 results conference call (28 January 2026), the company provided somecolour on its expectations for Q1 26 andfullyear2026: ◆Q1 26revenuebetween USD53.5-56.5 (implying growth between 26.4%-33.5% y-o-y), with4% FX tailwinds (Visible Alpha cons:USD55.4bn, +31% y-o-y)◆FY 26totalexpensesin aUSD162-169bnrange(cons:USD163.9bn)◆FY 26capexbetween USD115-135bn (cons 26e: USD125.2bn)◆FY 26operating Income to beaboveFY 25a levels (cons: USD86.6bn, +4% y-o-y)◆FY 26 tax rate to be between 13-16% (cons: 14%) Consensusestimatechangessince Q425 We have analysed change in consensus estimates since the publication of the Q126results.Below, wecompare the change in consensus since7February, a week after results wereannounced. We have observedslightdownwardrevisions inrevenue,operating incomeandEPSbut upward revision in Capex estimates. Disclosure appendix Analyst Certification The followinganalyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s)whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s)of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), and anyotherviews or forecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on