2025地缘经济碎片化中的保险业研究报告

January 2025 Insurance in aFragmentedWorld Economy Kai-Uwe Schanz, Director Macro and Geoeconomic Shifts | Financial Inclusion,Geneva Association Geneva Association Geneva Association was created in 1973 and is the only global association ofinsurance companies; our members are insurance and reinsurance Chief ExecutiveOfficers (CEOs). Based on rigorous research conducted in collaboration with ourmembers, academic institutions and multilateral organisations, our mission is toidentify and investigate key trends that are likely to shape or impact the insuranceindustry in the future, highlighting what is at stake for the industry; developrecommendations for the industry and for policymakers; provide a platform to ourmembers and other stakeholders to discuss these trends and recommendations;and reach out to global opinion leaders and influential organisations to highlightthe positive contributions of insurance to better understanding risks and to buildingresilient and prosperous economies and societies, and thus a more sustainable world. Photo credits: Cover page – Getty Images for Unsplash+ Suggested citation: Geneva Association. 2025.Insurance in a Fragmented World Economy.Author: Kai-Uwe Schanz. January. © Geneva Association, 2025 All rights reservedwww.genevaassociation.org Contents Foreword5 Executive summary6 1.Introduction9 2.Economic manifestations of geoeconomic fragmentation 2.1Cross-border trade2.2Cross-border capital flows and supply chains2.3Technology diffusion2.4Provision of global public goods2.5Economic growth2.6Inflation 171820202023 3.Implications for insurers and their role in society 3.1Mitigation of global risks3.2International risk diversification3.3Global footprint3.4Commercial and specialty insurance3.5Retail insurance3.6Financial markets 262728303334 4.Possible responses from the insurance industry 4.1Scenario planning4.2Strategic responses along the value chain 3839 5.Conclusions43 References45 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report is a product of the Macro & Geoeconomic Shifts (MGS) work stream of the GenevaAssociation, co-sponsored by Lard Friese, CEO, Aegon, and Hiroshi Shimizu, CEO, Nippon Life. We are indebted to Lard Friese and Hiroshi Shimizu for their contributions to this report through in-depth interviews as well as to the following expert and executive interlocutors: •Miguel Abecasis, Executive Board Member, Fidelidade•Vincent Chaigneau, Head of Research, Generali Investments•Rebekah Clement, Lloyd’s Corporate Affairs Director•Nicolas Desombre, Chairman of Financial Institutions Group EMEA and Global Insurance Banking,Capital Markets & Advisory, Citi•Gerardo Di Filippo, Head of Group Risk Management Processes and Operations, Generali•Kweilin Ellingrud, McKinsey Global Institute Director and Senior Partner•Jerome Haegeli, Group Chief Economist, Swiss Re•Brad Irick, Co-Head of International Business, Tokio Marine•Robert Kahn, Managing Director, Geo-economics, Eurasia Group•Michael Menhart, Head of Economics, Sustainability and Public Affairs, Munich Re•Michele Morganti, Head of Insurance and Asset Management Research, Generali Investments Europe•Bryan Pickel, Head of Global Government Affairs and Sustainability, Prudential Financial•Thomas Seidl, Head of Group Strategy & Portfolio Management, Allianz•Derek Shi, Deputy General Manager, PingAn P&C•Sheldon Yu, CEO, Taiping Reinsurance Furthermore, we would like to thank Runhuan Feng, Chair Professor of Finance, Tsinghua University,Beijing, and Jean Kwon, Professor of International Insurance and Risk Management, St. John’sUniversity, New York, for their editorial contributions to this report. We are also very grateful to the members of the Working Group, established in support of our MGSresearch activities, namely: Manuel Aguilera-Verduzco (MAPFRE), Tomo Asaka (Tokio Marine),Jordi Balcells (VidaCaixa), Gonzalo de Cadenas Santiago (MAPFRE), Olivier Desbiey (AXA),Michael Fischer (VIG), David Franco (Lloyd’s), Steffen Heij (Aegon), Arne Holzhausen (Allianz),Thomas Holzheu (Swiss Re), Andrew Kennedy (Chubb), Artur Klinger (Everest), Keith Krause(Aegon), Hervé Lievore (AIA), Roberto Malo (VidaCaixa), Connar McBain (Phoenix Group),Makoto Okubo (Nippon Life), Vincent Paquet (Intact Financial), Benoit Waltregny (Lloyd’s),Clarence Wong (Peak Re), Ernesto Zaccaria (Ageas) and Paolo Zanghieri (Generali). Foreword The tides of globalisation are shifting. Nations are increasingly prioritising securityover efficiency, a trend that has given rise to ‘geoeconomic fragmentation’. This phe-nomenon, marked by reduced global economic integration as a result of new barriersto cross-border trade and capital flows, has profound implications for economiesand industries worldwide. Models project that in its most severe form, geoeconomicfragmentation could slash global GDP growth by as much as 7%, compared to 10-yearbaseline forecasts. Our report examines the implications of this evolving landscape for re/insurers andhow they may nee