全球存储技术：香港投资者反馈：十大关键要点与讨论点

HK investor feedback:tenkey takewaysand discussion points Industry Overview 17 April 2026 HKinvestors: largely bullish on memory, particularly NANDWe met Hong Kong investors this week, who were broadly bullish onmemory. What the EquityGlobalTechnology investors shared about their views/status: (1) most investors we spoke with alreadyowned lots of memory stocks, but still looked interested in increasing exposure to SKHynix or Samsung Electronics; (2) NAND is viewed more favorably than DRAM, supportedby prior underinvestment and“key-value”memory theme; and (3) significantly rising FCFamong memory chipmakers. We also presented our views on DRAM-centric super-cycle(even with stable ASP assumptions) and some risks for NAND. Simon Woo, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Seoul)+82 2 3707 0554simon.woo@bofa.com Dai Shen>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)dai.shen@bofa.com Q1: Memoryprice outlookInvestorexpectations appear overly optimistic, expecting further price rally through 2H and even 2027. Our view is relatively conservative, anticipating broadly flat or singledigit% decline after the 3Q24-2Q26 rally. Spot price remained mixed this week - slightlydeclined among DDR4, NAND and SSD vs decent rebound of DDR5. Some modulemakers alluded that rising LTAs may prevent severe spot price corrections (or decentrally particularly DDR5) following chip supply shift (from spot to long-term customers). Vivek AryaResearch AnalystBofASvivek.arya@bofa.com Mikio Hirakawa>>Research AnalystBofAS Japanmikio.hirakawa@bofa.com Q2: LTA trendsChipmakersdo not disclose LTA details, but we observe 2-3x more agreements, longer Matt Shin>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Seoul)matt.shin2@bofa.com period and very favorable prices vs 2022 peak; e.g., US$10+/GB, just single-digit%contract price change per quarter as max, certain volume by 2028 or even 2030. Q3: HBM4supply dynamics: a production cut on the horizon?We don’t anticipate any HBM4 production decline or US order cuts either; >11Gbps supply/demand on track. Meanwhile, we see slightly higher wafer input for HBM3e tomeet stronger demand. Q4: NAND supply tightnessTrue, currently significant shortagepersists in the NAND market. Thus, 2Q NAND ASP hike (e.g., up more than 30%+ QoQ) can be higher than DRAM (up 30% range). That said,we assume marginal corrections (NAND price) in late-2026 and 1H27, following fabutilization increase and per wafer productivity increase (at 200-300 layers). We alsolearned that investors were too bullish on KV/cache memory (eSSD) vs limited confirmedorder increase trends. Q5: New fab construction/impactNew fab construction on track in Asia andUS, but it is mainly for 2028-30 mass production (mainly DRAM/HBM; no sign for significant NAND capacity expansion). ASP: Average selling priceADR: American depositary receiptCXMT: ChangXin Memory TechnologiesDDR4/5: 4th/5thgen double-data rate DRAMDRAM: Dynamic random-access memoryeSSD: Enterprise solid-state driveGbps/GB: Gigabit per second / GigabyteHBM: High bandwidth memoryHBM3e/4/4e: 5th/6th/7thgen of HBMLTA: Long-term agreementNAND: Not-AND memorySSD: Solid-state driveYMTC: Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. Continued on page 2 >> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analystunder the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that takeresponsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business withissuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 15 to 19. Analyst Certification on page 13. PriceObjective Basis/Risk on page 12.12960129 Q6: China memory capacity expansionWe still see a large gap between wafer capacity (10%+ of global memory total) and actual production volume (low-single-digit% of global supply). True, CXMT (DRAM) andYMTC (NAND) are expected to construct one more new fab each through 2026-27, butthis does not warrant a significant chip production increase if quality/yield remain low. Q7: Samsung/Hynix earnings call previewManagement’s additional efforts to stabilize chip pricing through 2H and 2027 to be addressed; of course, capex increase and more active dividend payments/buyback likelyto be mentioned. Q8: Skyrocketing FCF vs market capSome investors suggested that 3-year FCF (2026-28) can be as much as current market cap (of major players); possible if memory price continues to rise until 2028, in our view. Q9: Valuation framework shift from P/B to P/E More investors are using P/E methodology (instead of P/B) vs 6-12 months ago; 50%+stock upside is being discussed even at 10x P/E multiple, given the high EPS outlook. Q10: Top picks: Hynix, Nanya Te