全球存储技术 周度主题：亚洲科技会议要点及三星超110万亿韩元支出
Weekly theme:Asia tech conferencetakeaways,Samsung’s W110tn+ spend Industry Overview 20 March 2026 All eyes onmemorysuper-cycle during the conferenceWe hosted29thannual Asia tech conference this week in Taiwan. What we learned from EquityGlobalTechnology memory chipmakers (Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Nanya Tech, Winbond), supplychain companies (Silicon Motion,Phison Electronics, Powerchip, etc) and experts(TrendForce, etc): (1) strong ASPinnot only 1Q but also 2Q(DRAM and NAND),(2)bullish guidance due to AI growth theme,(3) high margin(even 80%+ DRAM grossmarginwidelydiscussed), (4) significantly risingcapex for shellfab construction(vsrelatively conservative spend for equipment), (5) limitedwafer capacity expansion evenin 2027-28 (particularly conventional DRAM/NANDgiven HBM-centric capex andmanufacturing bottleneck for 1c and 1d nodes), (6)moreLTA-based conventionalmemory supplytargeted(but actually contracted amount not yetsignificantaccording toour understanding; still mostly quarterly basis contracts; one-off prepaymenttype oftransactionsalso discussed), (7) new growth opportunities among cache memory usinglegacy DRAM and NAND well guided (by Winbond, Nanya Tech and Phison), and (8) lowimpact of Middle East crisis (no supply chain disruption or minimal concernaboutpower/helium/bromine supplyshortage) confirmed by major chipmakers. Valuationmethod shift from P/B to P/E was also well discussed among investors. Simon Woo, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Seoul)+82 2 3707 0554simon.woo@bofa.com Dai Shen>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)dai.shen@bofa.com Vivek AryaResearch AnalystBofASvivek.arya@bofa.com Mikio Hirakawa>>Research AnalystBofAS Japanmikio.hirakawa@bofa.com Matt Shin>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Seoul)matt.shin2@bofa.com DRAM spot no longer rises but remains exceptionally high DRAM spot price remained flat this week but it still shows50%+QoQ/500%+ YoYgrowth. This should offer strong March and 2Q memory earnings results as Micronguided for the firm’s May-end quarter (sales:+40% QoQ; GM:81%; OPM:70%+).Micron’s strongly increasing capex (US$30-40bn pa in 2026-28) also includes lots ofinfrastructure (shell fabconstruction, etc)-related spend;thus,too early to see majorimpact on global memory chip supply, in our view. March contract price alsolooksstablebut we stillseestrongly rising NAND price (see our more positive view on Phison). Exhibit1:DRAM and NAND broadlystable, but strongly up QoQSpot-market pricesamong DRAM and NAND Samsung’s FCF still high even afterW110tn+capex+R&DSamsung Electronics updated its value-up programon 19 Marchbut we just see slightly higher target spending for 2026:W110tn+ for combined capex+R&D vs our currentestimate of W107tn (W64tn+W43tn); payout ratio (50% of FCF) remains unchanged. If50% of 2026 FCF can be W50tn, then W40tn should be the budget for new buyback orspecial dividends after W10tn cash dividends.We expect management’s decision forbuyback/special dividend based on 2026 FCF to be decided in2H26 or late Jan 2027. Hynix’s AGM takeawayslookoptimistic AGM: Annual general meetingAI: ArtificialintelligenceASP: Averageselling priceDRAM: Dynamic random-access memoryGM/OPM: Gross/OP marginHBM: High bandwidth memoryLTA: Long-term agreementNAND: Not-AND memoryR&D: Research & development SK Hynix will host AGM on 25 Mar. Like Samsung Electronics, Hynix is also expected toprovide bullish guidance (memory super-cycle), significant capex increase (but includinglarge spend for shell fab construction) and active shareholder return (50% of FCF). Micron’s breakthrough results/guidance Exhibit3:ASP-driven margin accretion well-observed in Feb-Q (GM75%, OPM 69%) and Micron expects further improvement in May-Q (GM 81%, OPM 77%)Micron–Quarterly gross margin and OP margin trend Exhibit2: Record-high quarterly sales in Feb-Q (US$23.9bn; +75%QoQ, +196% YoY);management also privded exceptionally strongsales guidance for May-Q (US$33.5bn; +40% QoQ, +260% YoY)Micron–Quarterly sales trend Exhibit4:Exceptionally strong DRAM sales in Feb-Q (US$18.8bn;+73% QoQ, +207% YoY) and NAND sales also strongly recovered(US$5bn; +82% QoQ, +169% YoY)Micron–Quarterly DRAM and NAND sales Exhibit5:Triple-digit% YoY rebound expected to continuethroughout 2026Micron–YoY growth in DRAM and NAND sales Exhibit6:Robust ASP hike (QoQ basis) seen in Feb-Q (DRAM +65%,NAND +79%) and >30% growth likely inMay-QMicron–QoQ change in DRAM and NAND ASP Micron–DRAM and NAND OP margin trend China imports data China monthly IC imports by segment Memory spot/contractprice trend Exhibit12: DRAM spot price stabilized recently in Feb/Mar after an exceptionally strong rally from Sept-25 to Jan-2026.DRAM price hit the highest levels inthe past 25 yearsas thecurrent mainstream DRAM 16Gb DDR5stoodat US$40and 16Gb DDR4 at $75 as chipmakers reallocated production to HBMand server-grade DRAM. Previous high level was hit in Oct-17, but it was only $10 range.DRAM spot price–long-term trend (2
