供应链能力赋能服务乡镇夫妻店，硬折扣连锁突破
供应链能力赋能服务乡镇夫妻店，硬折扣连锁突破 Supply chain capabilities empower township family-run stores& Hard discount chains break through 最新动态 ➢2025年净利润同比提升11.3%。2025年，集团主动进行结构性调整，以利润与现金流为核心，成功实现了经营质量的历史性突破。尽管阶段性收入有所回调，但毛利率、净利率等多项核心指标创下新高，标志着公司正式迈入“提质增效”的价值创造新周期。2025年，集团实现营业收入人民币523.0亿元；实现净利润人民币5.29亿元，同比增长14.6%；归母净利润3.0亿元，同比增长11.3%；毛利率提升至4.5%，同比提升0.7个百分点，增幅达18%；现金流入净额人民币4.19亿元，财务状况稳健。2025年，集团在主动优化业务结构的过程中，核心盈利指标均实现逆势增长，毛利率、净利率及归母净利率三项核心财务指标均创下历史最高水平，充分印证了经营质量与盈利能力的持续提升，标志着集团已迈入高质量增长的新周期。 ➢深化智慧供应链建设，助力全产业链提质增效。2025年，集团持续提升智慧供应链能力，聚焦构建“反向+短链+数字化”的创新供应链模式，助力全产业链合作伙伴提质增效。集团在2025年2月28日正式发布了“品牌直通车”“自有品牌生态群”“开放式智慧供应链平台”三大智能供应链工程，全面推动落地：持续深化与苹果、山东瑞星、宁夏蓝丰等头部品牌厂商的战略合作，其中苹果新品季毛利率提升30%+，单店产出增长40%+；积极拓展日化快消、适老健康等创新品类，与橘宜集团、欧琳集团、博音听力、本来生活等企业共同开发下沉市场新消费场景，2025年集团新品类收入提升50%+；集团自有品牌收入突破人民币1.4亿元，同比增长37%，毛利率超40%，其中“桃花潭”“故宫”“阿尔蒂沙”等自有品牌获得市场广泛好评，品牌影响力持续提升。 ➢从“产业经营”到“产业+资本”的双轮驱动。1）收购A股上市公司金通灵：公司以每股1.4元收购高端制造A股上市企业“金通灵（300091）”的25%股权，成为其第一大股东，构建“大消费+智能制造”双产业布局。2）战略并购电商AI头部企业：公司收购头部AI电商企业“认知边界”57%股权，26-28年其对赌净利润分别为人民币8,500万、1亿、1.15亿元，加速构建全栈式AI能力。3）启动股份回购：视市场情况持续回购，提升股东回报。4）扫清分红障碍：完成资本公积弥补亏损，为未来实现分红奠定基础。 动向解读 ➢快消折扣零售进入结构性扩容期，万亿级市场空间加速释放。模式本质：通过供应链优化、精简商品种类、发展高比例自有品牌等方式实现结构性降本，从而提供长期稳定的低价优质商品。全球维度：硬折扣已成为全球零售格局中不可忽视的重要力量，2025年折扣业态在全球零售50强中占比已达12.6%，位列第三。中国维度：我国GDP中消费占比仍低，横向对比美日韩等发达国家仍有广阔增长空间。同时，在宏观经济增速放缓及居民收入预期承压背景下，折扣零售渠道正迎来发展机遇。格局初显：从外资先行到本土竞逐，从“跑马圈地”向“精耕细作”。2025年中国社会消费品零售总额突破50.1万亿元，商品零售额保持增长，表明零售需求并未消失，而是在渠道、价格带与履约方式上发生重构。中国硬折扣零售具备“高增长、低渗透”特征，有望成为未来核心增量赛道。 ➢进军快消新业态，硬折扣连锁突破。公司聚焦下沉市场，以自营、合资、并购等方式拓展，构建广泛覆盖的快消品流通体系。公司力争三年成为中国下沉市场“硬折扣连锁头部品牌”。硬折扣连锁超市：2025年12月“折折蜂”首批十店齐开，正式进军快消品连锁新业态；硬折扣零食：与零食优选完成战略合作，加快硬折扣零食赛道布局。 策略建议 ➢盈利预测。我们预测公司2026-2028年归母净利润分别为3.59、4.05和4.60亿元，参考同行业公司，给予公司2026年17倍PE，按照港元兑人民币0.88汇率计算，对应目标价12.36港元，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。 风险提示 ➢市场竞争风险、贸易政策风险、客户信贷风险、供应链中断及原料短缺风险。 分析师介绍 分析师庄怀超，拥有北京航空航天大学本科学位和香港大学金融学硕士学位。该分析师2022-2024年曾任职于海通国际研究部，团队2022年获得过亚洲货币第一名，该分析师2025年加入环球富盛理财有限公司。环球富盛理财有限公司是一家香港的持牌券商机构，成立于2014年。 该分析师曾在wind发布报告超过700篇，覆盖港股AI、半导体、软件和科技行业标的如下：伟仕佳杰、晶门半导体、珩湾科技、中国软件国际、百望股份、百富环球、赛晶科技、有赞、博雅互动、IGG、汇通达、卓越睿新、易点云、九方智投控股、华沿机器人等。 微信：zhuangcharles邮箱：charles.zhuang@gpf.com.hk电话：(852) 97487114; (86) 18801353537 The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng IndexTime Horizon: 6 to 18 months SECTOR RATING DEFINITIONThe Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS (1) The Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limited and/or its subsidiaries do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization ofthe issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (4)Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries have not had investment banking relationships with the issuermentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months. (5) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries are not making a market in the securities in respect of the issuermentioned in this Research Report. (6) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries have not employed an individual serving as an officerof the issuermentioned in this Research Report. There is no officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report associated withGlobal ProsperityFinancial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries. DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Global Prosperity FinancialCompany Limited. Global Prosperity Financial Company Limited and its group companies may do business that relates to companies coveredin research reports, including investment banking, investment services, etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor,underwriter or invest proprietarily). Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by salespersons, dealers and other professional executives of Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedgroup of companies. Any opinionsexpressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment bankinggroups ofGlobal Prosperity Financial Company Limited. Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report,Global ProsperityFinancial Company Limited does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This ResearchReportmay contain some forward-lookingestimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions withinherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understandand comprehend the investmentobjectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any i