美国信用阿尔法：尚需时日

It will take some time We highlight the launch of the US CDX Financials Index, recap1Q26 across asset classes, and discuss debt-to-equity relativevalue and mutual fund performance in high yield, theextension technical in investment grade, BDC ownership ofBSLs, pension ownership of private credit, and CLO rel val. BradleyRogoff,CFA+1 212 412 7921bradley.rogoff@barclays.comBCI, US Dominique Toublan+1 212 412 3841dominique.toublan@barclays.comBCI, US US Credit Alpha Overview. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 The ceasefire has reduced risk, but BBs now look rich versus BBBs. With headline volatility,sticky inflation, and higher oil prices likely to linger, we expect normalization to take some time.In the near term, credit should be driven more by technicals and security selection than beta. US Focus CDX Financials Index: Finally ready to launch. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5Ahead of the April 13 launch of the CDX Financials Index ("FINDEX"), we take a look at itscomposition and valuation and provide an overview of the new entrants to the CDS market. Wethink that initial interest in the index is likely to come from those looking to take a view on BDCrisk. US Focus Better Together: Debt-to-equity relative value across high yield sectors.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 We discuss the cheapest and most expensive bonds using DEVal (debt-to-equity valuation gap)within high yield sectors; 2) we include fundamental analysis and views; 3) DEVal back-testingshows 6% outperformance. Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendationsofferedin this report. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. US Focus US credit quarterly recap. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 Credit markets recorded their first quarterly loss in a year as performance deteriorated intoquarter-end. Energy led in returns, whilesoftwareand private credit-exposed sectorsunderperformed and supply/demand trends diverged across investment grade and leveragedfinance. US Investment Grade Trading the extension. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51March's month-end extension was significant, due to record supply, and similar historicalperiods would suggest the index will tighten on the follow, with heavy issuance sectors tooutperform US High Yield A 2018-ish start to the year. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 Despite negative index returns, retail funds outperformed the index in 1Q. We find similaritiesbetween 1Q26 and 1Q18 and study the drivers and reaction functions of mutual funds as aguide for 2026. US Leveraged Loans BDC ownership of BSLs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63BDCs own about $18bn of loans from issuers with syndicated debt outstanding. Perpetual BDCsmaintain this reserve so that they can sell liquid assets to meet redemptions, if needed. Wediscuss their exposures to BSLs and outline why BSL investors should care. Global CLOs The CLO rel val refresh. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68With a bumpy 1Q26 now over, we take a refreshed look at CLO relative value and find that EUBSL BBBs, US BSL AAs, and US private credit AAAs provide the best value. US Municipals Despite incessant headlines, private credit risks, in our view, are not systemic; however, wemight still see some spillover into the muni market. The buyer base generally consists ofinvestors that are less sensitive to volatility, which includes pension funds, endowments, andfoundations. US Credit Alpha Overview The ceasefire has reduced risk, but BBs now look rich versusBBBs. With headline volatility, sticky inflation, and higher oilprices likely to linger, we expect normalization to take sometime. In the near term, credit should be driven more bytechnicals and security selection than beta. BradleyRogoff,CFA+1 212 412 7921bradley.rogoff@barclays.comBCI, US Dominique Toublan+1 212 412 3841dominique.toublan@barclays.comBCI, US It will take some time Risk assets ra