扩大对有弹性的电力部门的投资：稳健的灾害风险融资的作用

The bottom line.While intensifying climate and disaster risks demand a corresponding surgein investment, the global adaptation financing gap continues to widen. For developing nations,annual investment requirements are projected to reach $310–$365 billion by 2035, whileinternational public finance flows dwindled to just $26 billion in 2023. With needs now outpacingcurrent funding by 12 to 14 times, a massive mobilization of both public and private capital iscritical (UNEP 2025). It is equally—if not more—important to ensure the effective deploymentof available financing. The World Bank Group’s recent report,Rethinking Resilience: Adaptingto a Changing Climate, promotes a “5 I’s” strategy based on income, information, insurance,infrastructure, and interventions (World Bank 2025).Public Disclosure Authorized ThisLive Wiredelves into the insurance prong of the 5 I’sstrategy in the context of power system resilience. It articu-lates how disaster risk financing (DRF),1including insurance,can preserve liquidity and enable rapid recovery as invest-ment needs grow, while recognizing that the remainingaspects—higher incomes driven by economic growth, prog-ress in risk information, resilient infrastructure, and smartinterventions—are inherently interlinked with the design andoverall effectiveness of insurance.Public Disclosure Authorized What is the key to effective disaster riskfinancing? A concept known as risk layering can prevent climateshocks from descending into fiscal crises The convergence of physical climate risks and structuralfinancial vulnerabilities creates a vicious cycle, where pre-existingfinancial constraints—stemming from non-cost-reflective tariffs and weak financial planning and manage-ment, among others—turn climate shocks into fiscal crises.These challenges are compounded by institutional weak-nesses, including the failure to integrate climate and disasterrisk into investment planning, pushing utilities into a reactivecycle of ad hoc borrowing and emergency aid—responsesthat are often slow and fiscally draining. This increases fiscalvolatility, undermines the investor confidence essential for 1. DRF is a framework used to structure financial protection against disasterrisks through a layered approach that combines risk retention, contingentfinancing, and risk transfer instruments, matched to the frequency andseverity of shocks. See Financial Protection Forum (2025), World Bank (2019). Selena Jihyun Leeis an energy specialist inthe Energy Policy and Regulations Unit of theEnergy and Extractives Global Practice at theWorld Bank.Public Disclosure Authorized Bolormaa Chimednamjilis a program officerin the Climate Learning and Operations,Solutions, and Impact unit within the PlanetVice Presidency at the World Bank. long-term recovery, and ultimately leaves governments toabsorb major fiscal shocks. Risk retention I: Budget reserves and reallocations Thepower sector can most efficiently manage high-frequency, low-impact events, such as routine climate vari-ability, through retained resources, primarily at the utilityand subnational levels. Typical instruments include utilityoperating reserves, maintenance and renewal funds, statu-tory disaster funds, contingency budgets, and prearrangedemergencyprocurement procedures.These mechanismsenable rapid operational response that does not rely on dis-cretionary or delayed fiscal transfers. This is where informed risk layering of DRF comes in: laying outvarious financial instruments according to the frequency andseverity of different shocks, aligning each layer with the mostappropriate and cost-effective financial instruments for therisk profile, and, where relevant, clarifying which stakeholders(utilities, subnational authorities, sovereigns, insurers, or cap-ital markets) finance those instruments (Financial ProtectionForum 2025; World Bank Treasury 2025b). Evidence fromglobalpower sector experience shows that reliance onpost-disaster financing alone, particularly ad hoc budgetreallocations or donor assistance, is often insufficient andunsustainable. Risk retention II: Contingent financing To stabilize liquidity during less frequent, medium-severityshocks that exceed routine reserves and strain utility cashflows and payment obligations, instruments designed toenable rapid disbursement, such as the Catastrophe DeferredDrawdown Option (Cat-DDO), liquidity facilities, paymentsecurity mechanisms, and guarantee structures, are typicallytriggeredby emergency declarations,predefined para-metricthresholds,or contractual conditions World BankTreasury 2024a, b). Other complementary layers of pro-tection include budgetary reserves for frequent events and Figure 1 illustrates the conventional risk layering frameworkused in DRF and its application to the power sector. Thethree layers correspond to different risk characteristics thatcomplement each other to form a coherent financial pro-tection framework that clarifies who bears which risks andthrough which in