Shifting Agendas：response to resilience

Shiftingagendas:responsetoresilience–theroleoftheengineerindisasterriskreduction1 Shiftingagendas: responsetoresilience Theroleoftheengineerindisasterriskreduction TheInstitutionofCivilEngineers9thBrunelInternationalLectureSeries PresentedbyJodaSilvaOBE,Director,Arup Shiftingagendas:responsetoresilience–theroleoftheengineerindisasterriskreduction2 Source:http://ioc3.unesco.org 3 Shiftingagendas:responsetoresilience–theroleoftheengineerindisasterriskreduction Acknowledgements ThislecturewouldnothavebeenpossiblewithoutArup’ssupport.IthasbenefittedfromtheinsightsandperspectivesofseveralcolleaguesatArupwithexpertiseandinterestinthistopic.IwouldliketothankJackPappin,AndyThompson,RachelSandham,StephenCook,DavidScott,Suzanna Pembroke,MatthewFree,PollyTurton,ArataOguri,SamKernaghan,UrszulaKanturska,andZiggyLubkowskifortakingthetimetotalktomeandtocommentonearlydrafts.Also,JennyBasterforherguidanceandsupport,andDebraLamforherhelpinpreparingthepresentation.Inparticular,IwouldliketoacknowledgeFloraTonking’sconsiderablecontributioninresearchingandeditingthetext. Inaddition,mythanksgotoPeterGuthrie,PaulJowittandJohnTwiggfortheirvaluableadviceandcomments.Mydeepestthanksarereservedfortheconstantsupportandpatienceofmyfamily. Executivesummary5 Introduction8 Background11 Factsandfigures11 Countingthecost12 Anuncertainfuture15 Thehumanitarianchallenge16 Theurbanchallenge19 Thecomplexitychallenge21 Theuncertaintychallenge23 Shiftingagendas25 Aparadigmshift25 Acomplementaryapproach26 Acallforaction26 Futurehorizons29 Aholisticunderstandingofrisk30 Anappropriatestrategy32 Asystemsperspective33 Anewcultureofsafety35 Acollaborativeapproach37 Aneducationalagenda37 Conclusion39 Glossaryofterms41 Notes42 Shiftingagendas:responsetoresilience–theroleoftheengineerindisasterriskreduction4 ©Arup 5 Shiftingagendas:responsetoresilience–theroleoftheengineerindisasterriskreduction Executivesummary Background Thescale,frequencyandseverityofnaturaldisastershaverisenprogressivelyoverthelast20years.Thistrendislikelytocontinueasrapidurbanisationandclimatechangecombinetocreatea‘perfectstorm’intermsofincreasinglevelsofvulnerability;astormwhichwillbefurthercompoundedbypoverty,environmentaldegradationandresourcescarcity.Atpresentearthquakesrepresentthemostdeadlyhazard,butweather-relatedhazardsaffectthegreatestnumberofpeople–2billionbetween2000and2009.GloballossesoverthesameperiodaveragedUS$100billionperannumandtheJapaneseearthquake,withlossesofUS$210-300billion,wasthemostcostlydisastereventinhistory.Therapidlyescalatingcostofdisastersisanincreasingcauseforconcernforinsurers,businessesandgovernments,butthetruecostsofadisasterarefeltmostacutelyatcommunitylevelandaredeterminedbythecommunity’sabilitytorecoverandrebuildtheirlives.Investmentinreducingtheimpact ofnaturalhazardsandinenhancingtheabilityofcommunitiestorecoverismorecosteffectivelongtermthandealingwiththeconsequencesofnaturalhazards. Futurechallenges Fourfundamentalchallengesunderpinthechanginglandscapeofdisasterrisk,makingithardertoforeseetheconsequencesofnaturalhazardsandtorespondeffectivelywhentheyoccur: Humanitarian–thefiniteresourcesandabilitiesofgovernmentsandhumanitarianactorstoeffectivelyrespondtodisastersandassistrecovery; Urbanisation–theimplicationsofrapidgrowthonurbandevelopmentandinfrastructurewhichisleadingtoincreasedvulnerability; Complexity–thedynamicnatureofurbanenvironments,andimplicationsofcascadingfailureduetointer-relationshipsbetweeninfrastructure,institutionsandecosystems; Uncertainty–greaterexposuretoweather-relatedhazardsandincreasedvulnerabilityarisingfromclimatechangewhichcannotbeaccuratelyforecast,andlimitationsinourabilitytomodelcomplexsystems. 6 Shiftingagendas:responsetoresilience–theroleoftheengineerindisasterriskreduction Shiftingagendas Inthefaceoftheincreasingscale,frequencyandseverityofrapidonsetdisastersgreateremphasisneedstobeplacedontheeffectivenessofhumanitarianresponsethroughbetterleadership,accountability,innovation,andpartnerships.But‘enhancingthestatusquo’isinsufficient.Thescaleofthechallengerequiresaparadigmshiftfromresponsetoresilience.Thereisanurgentneedtocreatecapacitylocallytoprepare,withstandandrecoverfrombothcatastrophiceventsandaccumulatingstresses.Thisrequiresactionthroughouttheentiretyofthedisastermanagementcycle,includingembeddingdisasterriskreductionwithindevelopmentpolicyandprogrammes. Acomparableparadigmshiftistakingplaceindisasterriskmanagementinrecognitionofthecomplexityanduncertaintygeneratedbyurbanisationandclimatechange.Thereisgrowingrecognitionthatalongsidehazard-specificmeasurestoreducedisasterrisk,moreemphasisneedstobeplacedupontacklingtheunderlying causesofvulnerabilityandondevelopinggenericadaptivecapacitytorespondtobothcatastrophiceventsandaccumulatingstresses.1Theobjectiveistocreatesafer andmoreresilientcommunitieswhoareabletoadapttochangingcircumstances,includingbeingabletosurviveandrecoverfromextremeevents. Acomplementaryapproach Buildingresilienceprovidesacomplementaryapproachtotraditionalriskmanagementprac