2022-2023年能源危机给天然气市场的教训

Gas Market Lessonsfrom the 2022-2023Energy Crisis INTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCY The IEA examines the fullspectrumof energy issuesincluding oil, gas andcoal supply anddemand, renewableenergy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand sidemanagement and muchmore. Through its work,the IEA advocatespolicies that will enhancethe reliability,affordability andsustainability of energyin its32Member countries,13Association countriesand beyond. IEAAssociationcountries: IEAMembercountries: AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TürkiyeUnited KingdomUnited States ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraine This publication and any mapincluded herein are withoutprejudice to the status of orsovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation ofinternational frontiers andboundaries and to the nameof any territory, city or area. The EuropeanCommission alsoparticipates in thework of the IEA Source: IEA.International Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.org Abstract The 2022-2023 energy crisis tested the resilience of the global gas and LNGmarkets with the most severe gas supply shock in history. During the crisis, naturalgas-importing markets around the world felt the pressures of record-high gasprices, including the scale-back in access to energy, the impediment to economicactivity and the extra burden on government budgets. Market responses variedbut governments were quick to react as the challenges of security of supplybecame apparent. Post-crisis, markets must continue to adapt as the effects ofthe crisis continue to influence security of gas supply. Taking stock of this newsituation and how to approach it will be key to improving security of gas supplyand enhancing the collective resilience to potential future natural gas marketshocks. This report aims to do just that, highlighting five key gas market lessonslearned from the crisis and their role in shaping a more secure energy future. Introduction Over the course of 2022 and 2023, the largest natural gas supply shock in historyunfolded, developing from seemingly regional dynamics into a global shockwavein gas and wider energy markets. The crisis has yet to be entirely resolved in the3 years that have since passed. However, the post-crisis gas market paradigmhas started to emerge, making it possible to draw lessons from the most acutephase of the crisis that can be transposed from one region or market to another,or that can be achieved through collective action across the wider gas market.Whilegas dependency can be reduced by accelerating the deployment ofrenewable power generation technologies and electrification of end-uses, thefocus of this report is on gas markets. In conjunction with countries’ long-termenergy and decarbonisation objectives, these lessons will be key in enhancingpreparedness for future gas market crises. The first lesson is that the global gas market has entered a structurally (andgeopolitically) more fragile environment following the 2022-2023 supply shock.Despite fast reorganisation of available liquefied natural gas (LNG) volumes inresponse to the loss of Russian pipeline flows in Europe, LNG trade flexibility didnot equate to compensating lost volumes in globally traded gas. With less naturalgas swing production capacity available to the market – namely as a result of thesharp drop in Russian supply to Europe – developing alternative flexibility andreserve options in the global gas and LNG market will be essential in betterpreparing for future gas supply shocks. Second, although the concurrent needs of the world’s two largest LNG importregions – Asia and Europe – led to zero-sum competition for LNG volumes at thepeak of the 2022-2023 crisis, fostering co-operation and co-ordination among like-minded importers and responsible suppliers can help ease the detrimental effectsof competitive pressure from future shocks. Working towards the relevant co-ordination mechanisms in a time of benign market conditions is essential inreducing uncertainty and enhancing predictability around the balancing of theglobal gas market in crisis periods. Third, the crisis highlighted the role of infrastructure redundancy in managingsupply disruptions effectively. Infrastructure remains the backbone of liquid andflexibleenergy markets,and in the post-crisis market environment energyinfrastructure needs are likely to be greater to support security of supply in a morefragile gas market context. Evaluating the associated benefits and costs will bekey in mobilising the right energy infrastructure investments and capitalising ontheir redundancy value in strengthening preparedness for future market shocks. Fourth, the supply shock showed that taking a strategic approach to buildingsupply portfol