宁德时代2026年第一季度：持续走强

Contemporary Amperex Technology Co Ltd Brian Ho, CFA+852 2123 2615brian.ho@bernsteinsg.com Outperform Hengliang Zhang+852 2123 2629hengliang.zhang@bernsteinsg.com Price Target 300750.CH620.00 CNY3750.HK600.00 HKD Quick Take: CATL 1Q26 - Stronger for longer The good:CATL reported 1Q26 revenue of RMB129.1 bn,up 52% y-o-y, while net profitreached RMB20.7 bn,increasing by 49% y-o-y, beating both our estimate by 15% andconsensus by 16%. Despite softer EV demand in China and higher metal prices since late2025, management reiterated a positive medium-term growth outlook, guiding to 20–30%volume CAGR over the next five years (4TWh by 2030) and highlighting continued marketshare gains. Total battery shipments in 1Q26 reached around 200GWh(+67% y-o-y), withESS accounting for 25% of the total. The strong 1Q26 results are supported by acceleratingdemand across EV’s and energy storage, alongside rapid capacity expansion which has lifted1Q26 utilization to a healthy 85–90%. Structural growth drivers remain intact, includingrising battery content per vehicle, fast-growing electrification in CV, and high certainty ESSdemand underpinned by clearer domestic policy support and AI-driven overseas needs. Unitoperating profit remained resilient at US$15.6/kWh (+12% y-o-y), underscoring CATL’s abilityto pass through higher metal costs despite input price pressures. The establishment of ShidaiResources Group (RMB30bn)further strengthens CATL’s upstream positioning, mitigatingresource volatility and supporting long-term growth. The bad:Recent China installation data softened, with its CV battery installations market sharedown -9.2% y-o-y (52% to 43%) in 1Q, according to CABIA. In March, xEV battery market sharedeclined -3.6% m-o-m to 45.5%, while LFP market share fell -4.7% m-o-m to 39.6%, whichlikely explains the sequential weakness in xEV demand during the month. The bottom line:CATL delivered better-than-expected 1Q26 results, with revenue increasingby +52% y-o-y, battery sales volume over 200GWh (+67% y-o-y) and an increase in unitoperating profit (+12% y-o-y). We expect positive EPS revisions to consensus estimates on theback of these results which should continue to support share price performance. 1Q26 FINANCIAL RESULTS •CATL delivered 1Q26 revenue of RMB129bn (+52% y-o-y) which was 11% higher than1Q26 consensus revenue ofRMB116bn. •SNE data shows CATL xEV battery installations grew by 14% y-o-y in January and February. Based on the company briefing,1Q26 total battery sales volume of CATL increased by amuch stronger 67% y-o-y to 200GWh, of which ESS accounted for25%. •During 1Q26, China LFP battery prices (based on spot prices) increased 1% y-o-y to US$77/kWh. For high nickel batterypack prices, prices increased to US$101/kWh (2% y-o-y). Gross profit •Gross profit was RMB32.0bn in 1Q26 (+55% y-o-y). Gross profit margin was 24.8% in 1Q26 (vs. 24.4% in 1Q25).Consensus for 1Q26 GPM is 24.7%. •Gross profit per unit (total gross profit) was around US$22.6 per kWh (vs. US$24.3 in 1Q25 and our estimate of US$22.5/kWh). Operating profit •Operating expenditures: CATL recorded RMB10.0bn OPEX in 1Q26, of which RMB4.6bn for SG&A (+15% y-o-y) whileRMB5.3bn for R&D (+10% y-o-y). SG&A expenditure accounted for 3.6% of total revenue (vs. 4.8% in 1Q25), and R&Dexpenditure accounted for 4.1% (vs. 5.7% in 1Q25). Operating profit was RMB22.1bn in 1Q26 (+87% y-o-y). Operating profit margin was 17.1% in 1Q26 (vs. 14.0% in 1Q25). Operating profit per unit was around US$15.6 per kWh (vs. US$13.9 in 1Q25 and our estimate of US$13.8/kWh). Net income Asset impairment loss: CATL recorded RMB-1.4bn asset impairment losses in 1Q26 (-7% of net profit, +22% y-o-y). •Investment gain: In 1Q26 CATL recorded RMB2.7bn investment gain (13% of net income, +101% y-o-y), of which the mostwere gains from investments in associates and JVs. •Government subsidies: CATL recorded RMB3.3bn in other income with majority from government subsidies (16% of netincome, +6% y-o-y).•CATL reported 1Q26 net profit of RMB20.7bn (+49% y-o-y), which beat consensus by 16% and our estimate by 15%.•Net profit per unit was around US$14.6 per kWh (vs. US$16.4 in 1Q25 and our estimate of US$15.2/kWh). Balance sheet •At 1Q2026, CATL had a net cash position of RMB264bn (from net cash of RMB242bn at YE25). Cash balance reachedRMB352bn (up from RMB334bn at YE25). Cash flow •1Q2026 cash flow from operating activities reached RMB33.7bn (+3% y-o-y).•Capital investments for 1Q26 was RMB12.4bn (+20% y-o-y). CONFERENCE CALL HIGHLIGHTS COMPANY OUTLOOK •Capacity expansion: Expansion has been very rapid since end-2024, after it was relatively cautious in 2022-2023. Theelectrification trend in EV batteries is becoming increasingly clear, and battery capacity per vehicle is rising rapidly.Commercial vehicle penetration is growing quickly - last year heavy-duty electric trucks grew 100% y-o-y, having crossedthe cost inflection point, driving very rapid expansion. On the ESS s