2026年4月亚洲发展展望：中东冲突挑战亚太地区的韧性

THE MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT CHALLENGESRESILIENCE IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC ASIAN DEVELOPMENTOUTLOOKAPRIL 2026 THE MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT CHALLENGESRESILIENCE IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) © 2026 Asian Development Bank6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, PhilippinesTel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444www.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in 2026. ISBN 978-92-9277-764-7 (print); 978-92-9277-765-4 (PDF); 978-92-9277-766-1 (e-book)ISSN 0117-0481 (print), 1996-725X (PDF)Publication Stock No. FLS260098-3DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/FLS260098-3 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policiesof the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for anyconsequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that theyare endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, ADB does notintend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. This publication is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be boundby the terms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisionsand terms of use at https://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess. This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributedto another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it.ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material. Please contact pubsmarketing@adb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wishto obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to usethe ADB logo. Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda. Notes: In this publication, “$” refers to United States dollars.ADB recognizes “Brunei” as Brunei Darussalam; “China” as the People’s Republic of China; “Hong Kong” as Hong Kong,China; “Korea” as the Republic of Korea; “Laos” as the Lao People’s Democratic Republic; and “USA” as the United States. Cover design by Anthony Victoria. Cover artwork rendered by Victor D. Base Jr. (Cocoi Base) licensed exclusively to ADB © 2026 “Drafting 01 (artworkdetail)” Victor D. Base Jr. All Rights Reserved. ForewordAcknowledgmentsDefinitions and AssumptionsAbbreviations ADO April 2026—Highlights The Middle East Conflict Challenges Resilience1in Asia and the Pacific Resilient Growth Despite Trade and Geopolitical Shocks4Geopolitical Headwinds and Trade to Slow Regional Growth30The Risk of Escalating Middle East Tensions Looms Large42Special Topic: AI Readiness and Economic Impacts in Asia and the Pacific44Annex: Steady Growth, Rising External Pressures53 PART 2 Economic Trends and Prospects 73 Caucasus and Central and West AsiaArmenia AzerbaijanGeorgiaKazakhstanKyrgyz RepublicTajikistanTürkiyeTurkmenistanUzbekistan Developing East Asia129 People’s Republic of ChinaMongolia 131140 South AsiaAfghanistan BangladeshBhutanIndiaMaldivesNepalPakistanSri Lanka Developing Southeast AsiaBrunei Darussalam CambodiaIndonesiaLao People’s Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMyanmarPhilippinesThailandTimor-LesteViet Nam The Pacific FijiPapua New GuineaSolomon IslandsVanuatuCentral Pacific EconomiesNorth Pacific EconomiesSouth Pacific Economies Statistical Appendix Developing Asia and the Pacific’s economic ascent faces a formidable test. The conflict in the Middle East hasinjected new uncertainty into an already fragile global landscape, disrupting trade and energy markets. While theregion’s direct exposure is limited, it remains vulnerable to rising prices for energy and other commodities, which faninflation and tighten financial conditions. The impacts are subject to extreme uncertainty and will depend on the length of the conflict. Disruptions causedby damaged infrastructure will have persistent effects, with delayed impacts on supply chains compounding theinitial shock. Higher fertilizer prices, in particular, could disrupt agricultural output and create food insecurity.Asian Development Outlook (ADO) April 2026estimates that growth in the region could slow substantially in the caseof a prolonged conflict or further escalation. Fortunately, the region enters this period from a position of strength,and its proven ability to adapt offers a crucial