2026年中东冲突与亚洲及太平洋的宏观经济风险（英）

KEY POINTS The 2026 Conflict in the Middle Eastand Macroeconomic Risks forAsia and the Pacific •The 2026 conflict inthe Middle East affectseconomies in Asia and thePacific through higher energyprices, supply chain and tradedisruptions, tighter financialconditions, and weakerremittance flows. Matteo LanzafameDirectorEconomic Research and DevelopmentImpact Department (ERDI)Asian Development Bank (ADB) Jaqueson K. GalimbertiSenior EconomistERDI, ADB •Impacts will be limitedunder a short-lived conflict.However, a prolonged andmore severe conflict—with much larger andmore persistent increasesin energy prices until2027 Q1—reduces growthin developing Asia and thePacific by 1.3 percentagepoints and raises inflation by3.2 percentage points over2026–2027. Gabriele CiminelliEconomistERDI, ADB John BeirnePrincipal EconomistERDI, ADB ECONOMIES IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC ARE HIGHLYVULNERABLE TO A PROTRACTED CONFLICT INTHE MIDDLE EAST •Policymakers shouldsafeguard macroeconomicstability, manage energyconsumption, and accelerateenergy diversification.Broad-based energysubsidies and price controlsshould give way to targetedand time-bound fiscalsupport. Monetary policyshould focus on targetedliquidity provision ratherthan aggressive tightening,while anchoring inflationexpectations througheffective communication. The 2026 conflict in the Middle East places geopolitical tensions as a central driverof the regional macroeconomic outlook.Although Asia and the Pacific has limiteddirect trade exposure to Iran and other countries in the Middle East, economies in theregion are highly vulnerable to spillovers transmitted through global energy markets, tradeand transport networks, and financial conditions.The risk extends beyond oil productionitself to include maritime transport through the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit route forglobal oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments;aviation corridors linking Asia and The authors are grateful to Albert F. Park, Chief Economist, ADB, and Abdul D. Abiad, Deputy ChiefEconomist, ADB, for their guidance and insightful comments. They also acknowledge the valuablecontributions by Pilipinas F. Quising, Dennis E. Sorino, Priscille C. Villanueva, Mai Lin C. Villaruel,Ed Kieran C. Reyes, Shiela Camingue-Romance, and Michael O. Timbang, of ERDI, ADB, and inputsfrom other ADB colleagues. In this publication, Asia and the Pacific comprises all regional member economies of the AsianDevelopment Bank. These are grouped into two subregions. The first is advanced Asia and the Pacific(AAP), comprising economies classified as advanced by the International Monetary Fund and as high-income by the World Bank. The second is developing Asia and the Pacific (DAP), which includes allremaining economies. For the compositions of subregional groupings, see the appendix table. Notes: In this publication, “$” refers to US dollars. ADB recognizes “Korea” as the Republic of Korea.Effective 1 February 2021, ADB placed a temporary hold on sovereign project disbursements and newcontracts in Myanmar. ADB placed its regular assistance to Afghanistan on hold effective 15 August 2021. ISBN 978-92-9277-744-9 (print)ISBN 978-92-9277-745-6 (PDF)ISSN 2071-7202 (print)ISSN 2218-2675 (PDF)Publication Stock No. BRF260115-3DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/BRF260115-3 ADB BRIEFS NO. 384 the Pacific with Europe; and already strained global shipping routes.1These transmission channels are particularly relevant for Asia andthe Pacific, which is both the world’s largest energy-importing regionand a central hub for global manufacturing and trade (ADB 2026). Figure 1: Net Oil and Gas Imports as a Share of GDP(%, 2022–23 average) Most economies in Asia and the Pacific are strongly dependenton imported energy. Asia and the Pacific’s vulnerability to the Middle East conflictstems in large part from its dependence on imported energy.The region is home to some of the world’s largest oil importers—including the People’s Republic of China (PRC), India, Japan, andthe Republic of Korea. Most regional economies are substantial netimporters of crude oil, refined oil products, and natural gas relativeto their gross domestic product (GDP) (Figure 1). This implies thateven moderate increases in energy prices can generate significantincome losses. Asia’s exposure to the conflict is further underscored by import-source concentration.Around 20% of global oil and LNG tradepasses through the Strait of Hormuz, with Asia being the maindestination (Figure 2). Japan sources around three-quarters of itsoil consumption from the Middle East, and high dependence issimilarly observed in Singapore, India, and the PRC. Because crudeoil is traded in an integrated global market, a disruption in the Straitaffects all net oil importers through higher world prices. However,Asia’s heavier reliance on Gulf suppliers also implies greatershort-run exposure to shipping disruptions, higher transport andinsurance costs, and temporary difficulties in replacing disrupte