电动汽车与劳动力市场转型

Electric Vehicle and Labor Market Transformation From Gig to Gain: HowRethinking Informal Transport BusinessModelsCan Promote EV Adoption Lee, Yoomin; Seo, Hee Kwon; Merfeld, Joshua; Courtright, Thomas;Lee, Narae; Park, Sungho; Yoon, Chungeun Electric Vehicle and Labor Market Transformation © 2025 The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet:www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved This work is a product of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressedin this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or thegovernments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data includedin this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies inthe information, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods,processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, links/footnotes and otherinformation shown in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerningthe legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The citationof works authored by others does not mean the World Bank endorses the views expressed by thoseauthors or the content of their works. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of theprivileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages disseminationof its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes aslong as full attribution to this work is given. Attribution Please cite the work as follows: Lee, Yoomin; Seo, Hee Kwon; Merfeld, Joshua; Courtright, Thomas;Lee, Narae; Park, Sungho; Yoon, Chungeun. 2025. Electric Vehicle and Labor Market TransformationWashington, DC. © World Bank. License: CC BY 3.0 IGO. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World BankPublications, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625;e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org. Table of Contents 1.1The Supply of Two- and Three-Wheelers: Definitions and Origins.................................................21.2Role of Two- and Three-Wheelers in Developing Economies............................................................51.3Regulatory Requirements: Requirements for Individual Drivers..................................................101.4Formalizing the Industry: Requirements to Organize/Register.....................................................161.5Vehicle Financing: How Drivers Acquire and Pay for their Motorcycles.....................................17 Chapter 2The Rise of Ride-Hailing Platforms.........................................................................................25 2.1Development of Ride-Hailing Platforms............................................................................................262.2What Defines Ride-Hailing App Penetration Across Markets.......................................................302.3How Digitalization Is Affecting the Motorcycle-Taxi Industry......................................................342.4How Drivers and Groups Navigate Platform Dynamics..................................................................362.5Case Study: SafeBoda in Uganda........................................................................................................39 Chapter 3Understanding Business-Model Impacts: A Causal Inference Approach..........................44 3.1Causal Analysis and Counterfactual Framework............................................................................453.2Causal Inference and the Difference-in-Differences Approach.....................................................47 Chapter 4Applying the Framework: Field Evidence from Nairobi, Kenya............................................48 4.1Expectations for the Guaranteed Salary Program.........................................................................524.2Results from the Randomized Controlled Trial.................................................................................544.3Business Model Transition and Its Effects on Driver Behavior....................................................594.4Results from the LTO Transition Analysis.........................................................................................624.5Evidence Constraints and Interpretation Considerations..............................................................93 Figures Figure 1.1Motorcycle imports in Kenya.........................................................................................................3Figure 1.2Total Number of New Motorcycle Registrations in Kenya and Number o