流动展示：额外收益之痛

The Gravy Pain 19 March 2026 Scores on the Doors: oil 64.7%, gold 7.0%, global stocks 1.2%, US$ 0.9%, cash 0.8%,govt bonds -0.8%, HY bonds -0.8%, IG -0.9%, US stocks -3.5%, bitcoin -19.9% YTD. Investment StrategyGlobal Zeitgeist:“Markets stop panicking, when policy makers start panicking.” The Biggest Picture: big events, new asset leadership…’71 end of Bretton Woods =gold bull,’81 Volcker shock = bond bull,’89 fall of Berlin Wall = US stock bull, 9/11 =BRICS bull, GFC in '08 = private equity bull; COVID in’20…fiscal excess (Chart 4), end of“Japanification,”start of inflationary“LatAmification”(populism, indebtedness, boom-bust) = bond & China bears, and gold & Mag7 bulls (Charts 2 & 11). MichaelHartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com The Price is Right: H2’2020s themes (Chart 3)…1. commodity bull broadens from goldto metals & energy…Venezuela, Greenland, Iran, Taiwan geopolitics say who owns chips,rare earths, minerals, oil supply wins AI war; 2. international & US mid-capmanufacturing over leveraged US stocks (vulnerable to 2ndwave inflation, and AIconcentration if railroads analog is wrong–Charts 5 & 6) to trade reshoring, defense,infrastructure needs; 3. contrarian consumer stocks (already priced for stagflation), aspopulist socialism (Chart 8) more aggressively placates lower-income electorate. Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com Tale of the Tape: Trump economic approval at new lows (Chart 7 = Trump elected toend war & end inflation) = big incentive for US to de-escalate…sell US dollar DXY above100, buy UST30 @ 5%, buy SPX below 6600; no new summer highs (except in bondyields) if end of war = no bounce in approval, and credit markets (shadow banking) &labor markets (AI) cause Gen QE & Gen Z to pause their bid. Jessica GuoInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0033jessica.guo@bofa.com Chart2:Big change…new bull marketsBig geopolitical events and subsequent trough-to-peak asset performance Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy. The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, orotherwise relied upon by third parties for any otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofAGlobal Research. This indicator was not created to act asa benchmark.BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH More on page 2… Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and thefinancialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 12 to 14.12949494 Timestamp: 19 March 2026 11:30PM EDT Weekly Flows: $62.2bn to stocks, $23.5bn to cash, $10.2bn to bonds, $1.0bn to crypto,$4.5bn from gold. Flows to Know: •Gold: $4.5bn outflow, biggest since Oct’25 (Chart 12);•Treasuries: $12.9bn inflow, biggest since Apr’25;•HY bonds: $5.2bn outflow, biggest since Apr’25 (Chart 13);•US equities: $47.1bn inflow, biggest since Dec’25 (incl. $40.2bn to SCHD, VOO, andSPYM);•Energy: $1.1bn inflow, 17thweek of inflows;•Materials: $6.0bn outflow, biggest since Oct'25, $56.1bn inflow YTD;•Financials: $0.4bn outflow, with $0.5bn outflow YTD;•Tech: $1.7bn inflow, $25.1bn inflow YTD (on track for record–Chart 14). BofA Private Clients: $4.2tn AUM…63.7% stocks (lowest since Jun'25), 18.3% bonds(highest since Jun'25), 10.7% cash; private clients buying equity dips…7thconsecutiveweek of GWIM inflows to equity ETFs and ETF share count up 2% YTD; in past 4 weeks,private clients buying TIPS, healthcare, consumer discretionary, and selling preciousmetals, utilities, industrials. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: down to 8.4 from 8.5 on outflows from HY bonds & EMdebt, weakening credit markets (wider HY & AT1 bond spreads), deteriorating globalstock index breadth; Bull & Bear Indicator below 8 would end the contrarian “sell signal”triggered in mid-Dec); old1BofA Bull & Bear Indicator up to 6.4 from 6.2. On Price, Positioning, Profits & Policy: •BofA positioning metrics do not yet show a capitulation of bull sentiment seen atlows and great entry points back into stocks/credit; BofA Bull & Bear Indicator notclose to 2, BofA FMS cash level not yet at 5%, big YTD equity inflows (on track forrecord year) not beefy outflows (Table 1); we say best signal time to aggressivelyadd risk when BofA Global Breath Rule triggers contrarian“buy