十五五期间自有铜产量有望翻倍，目标并购世界级规模项目

Self-ownedCopper production to double during the 15th Five Year Plan&Toacquireworld-class projects 最新动态 ➢25年归母净利润同比增长1.5%。2025年，集团实现收入34.20亿美元，同比下降10.4%；实现净利润5.83亿美元，同比增长4.6%；实现归母净利润4.04亿美元，同比增长1.5%。集团收入下降主要原因是代集团外的企业加工粗铜及阳极铜产量同比增加，自产自销铜产品销量同比下降，导致收入同比下降；集团归母净利润上涨主要原因是受国际铜价上涨影响。 ➢公司受益于铜价上涨。铜价展望：我们认为，短期（三五年内）铜价大概率运行在9500-11000美元/吨；核心支撑因素包括行业成本线（8000-8500美元/吨）、供需缺口（15%左右）、不确定性减产（5%-7%）。 ➢十五五期间自有矿山铜产量有望在现有基础上实现翻一番。我们认为，1）公司2026年产量：综合铜产量约48.4万吨（其中自有矿山铜约15.5万吨）、硫酸90万吨、氢氧化钴含钴约600吨、液态二氧化硫约1万吨；产量同比下降因谦比希铜冶炼和卢阿拉巴铜冶炼安排两个月年度检修；2）集团“十五五”期间产量目标：自有矿山铜产量有望在现有约16万吨基础上实现翻一番，主要依托赞比亚、刚果金及哈萨克斯坦本卡拉项目；3）2026年集团成本展望：预计维持近五年生产成本水平，通过科技增效、精益管理、工艺优化应对人工、辅料、电力成本上升；4）资本开支：“十五五”期间资本开支约25亿美元，2026年资本开支约5.1亿美元；哈萨克斯坦本卡拉项目可研预计需6亿美元左右。 ➢目标并购世界级规模项目。集团目标在“十五五”期间争取获得一座资源量1000万吨级的世界级规模项目。区域上集团重点布局三个方向：一是传统中南部非洲（赞比亚、刚果金及周边津巴布韦、博茨瓦纳等），跟踪合适项目；二是中亚国家（如哈萨克斯坦）：集团在中亚已有一定知名度，当地柴油和电力价格比中国内地便宜一半，借助本卡拉收购机会拓展；三是南美地区，优先考虑资源禀赋、国别风险及社区环保因素。“十五五”期间集团会在资源并购上有更多动作。 动向解读 ➢矿业开发为公司发展奠定基础。1）谦比希湿法冶炼：Samba铜矿采选工程项目计划在2026年上半年根据投资决策启动项目建设。项目估算总投资为2.75亿美元，主要收益来源为铜矿石经过后续工序加工为铜精矿的销售收入。Mwambashi-B铜矿深部矿体二期露天开采工程项目计划在2026年完成项目投资决策后启动项目建设。项目估算总投资7,900万美元，主要收益来源为铜矿石经过后续工序加工为阴极铜和铜精矿的销售收入。2）刚波夫矿业：刚波夫西矿体复产项目目前正在前期资源量核实和预可研阶段；刚波夫MSESA矿体复产项目目前已完成初稿，正在组织评审；刚波夫湿法厂工艺系统整体优化项目目前已完成全部建设工作及单体试车，正在组织投料试车。 策略建议 ➢盈利预测。我们预测公司2025-2027年归母净利润分别为5.05、6.35和7.95亿美元，参考同行业公司，给予公司2026年14倍PE，按照美元兑港币7.85汇率计算，对应目标价14.23港元，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。 风险提示 ➢外汇风险、商品价格风险、利率风险。 分析师介绍 分析师庄怀超，拥有北京航空航天大学本科学位和香港大学金融学硕士学位，主要覆盖能源化工和材料行业。 该分析师2022-2024年曾任职于海通国际研究部，团队2022年获得过亚洲货币第一名，该分析师2025年加入环球富盛理财有限公司，继续覆盖化工和新材料行业。环球富盛理财有限公司是一家香港的持牌券商机构，成立于2014年。 该分析师曾在wind发布报告超过600篇，主要覆盖标的包括： 1）化工&化肥：东岳集团、环球新材国际、中国联塑、阜丰集团、中国三江化工、浦林成山、中海石油化学、中国旭阳集团、龙蟠科技、彩客新能源、天德化工、中国心连心化肥、中化化肥、米高集团、大成生化科技； 2）能源&公用事业：中创新航、中集安瑞科、新奥能源、长江基建集团、中国能源建设、中煤能源、宏华集团、中海油田服务、安东油田服务、惠生工程、协合新能源、北京能源国际、绿色动力环保、中国光大绿色环保、首钢资源、新特能源、中裕能源、北京燃气蓝天、达力普控股； 3）有色&材料：中国宏桥、中国有色矿业、紫金黄金国际、万国黄金集团、潼关黄金、中国罕王、中广核矿业、稀美资源、首佳科技、信义光能、华新水泥、华润建材科技、大明国际。 微信：zhuangcharles邮箱：charles.zhuang@gpf.com.hk电话：(852)97487114; (86) 188 01353537 The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng IndexTime Horizon: 6 to 18 months SECTOR RATING DEFINITIONThe Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS (1) The Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limited and/or its subsidiaries do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization ofthe issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (4)Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries have not had investment banking relationships with the issuermentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months. (5) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries are not making a market in the securities in respect of the issuermentioned in this Research Report. (6) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries have not employed an individual serving as an officerof the issuermentioned in this Research Report. There is no officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report associated withGlobal ProsperityFinancial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries. DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Global Prosperity FinancialCompany Limited. Global Prosperity Financial Company Limited and its group companies may do business that relates to companies coveredin research reports, including investment banking, investment services, etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor,underwriter or invest proprietarily). Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by salespersons, dealers and other professional executives of Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedgroup of companies. Any opinionsexpressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment bankinggroups ofGlobal Prosperity Financial Company Limited. Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report,Global ProsperityFinancial Company Limited does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This ResearchReportmay contain some forward-lookingestimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions withinherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understandand comprehend the investmentobjectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision. This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or e