海峡局势恶化，但伊朗导弹发射率下降

EconomicsDBDaily Date4 March 2026 Strait situation deteriorating, but Iranian Phil OdonaghoeEconomist Oil up smalls and reaction muted so far versuspotential impact,strong beat on US services ISM US equities werestrongerWednesday, S&Pup 0.8% heading into the close. Liftin UST yields extends again, however, 10yrs up 3bps to 4.09%, 2yrs up 4bps to3.54%.And oil also up, albeit only a further 0.4%. Brent now at USD81/bbl.FTcitesofficials stating that therate ofIranianmissile launches is“declining”, while Strong beat onUS services ISM, up 2.3pts to 56.1in February, highest sinceJuly2022.Good details as well: prices paid down 3.6pts to lowest in 11 months, new US ADP employmentup 63k in February, a bit abovetheconsensus at 50k.Unlikely to shift expectations for payrollsdue Friday (consensus at 57k). US services PMI revised down0.5pts to51.7 inthefinal read for February.Eurozone services PMIrevised up 0.1pt to 51.9 in final reads for Feb. Fed’s Miran:Would “prefer”to move by 25bp incrementsuntil Fed gets to neutral,Fed is probably “a point” above neutral now, “way too early” to reject trend of a China PMIs missed. Manufacturing down 0.3pts to 49 in February,theconsensuslooked for a 0.1pot decline. Non-manufacturing up 0.1pt to 49.5, but theconsensuswasfor a 0.3pt rise. Deyun Ou notes the fall in the manufacturing index Australia GDP in line, up 0.8%qoq in Q4, although year-ended growth at 2.6%yoywas materially stronger than RBA’s 2.3% forecast, reflecting a small (~0.2ppt),albeit cumulative, upward revision to the past three quarters. These revisions areunlikely to influence the policy outlook much, especially sincekey detailsof theQ4 report leaned weaker: household consumption was much softer than the RBA Amy Yang with herlatestFed cheatsheet. Geopolitics reinforce a wait-and-seeapproach for the Fed, with Feds Williams, Kashkari and Schmid expressing theirview that it is premature to broadly assess economic ramifications of the Iran policy, reflecting a division between those advocating for more easing and those Updates from DB’s global team onthe Iran conflict: Michael Hsuehnotesthatthesituation in the Strait is deteriorating. Prices remainmuted versus the potential impact, with Brent for now remaining in the lower partof the USD80-100/bbl window outlined inMichael’s“ambiguous Strait closure”scenarioearlier this week. To highlight the significance of theStrait, the onlyalternative route isviatwopipelines that could carry at most 18% of typicalStraitvolumes. In an enforced enclosure, Michael now expects a Brent range of Max Uleerthinksequities are now close to a trough, arguing that the threat of alonger-term closure of the Strait and more severe attacks from Iran onneighbouring countries don’t seem credible. Iran is cutting itself off from its mostimportant revenue stream, oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, Luke Templemanwith a fascinating piece on Iran itself. To understand theconflict, understand the country. Luke provides a brief overview of Iran’s politics,history, military, economy, and energy assets. For the global economy, theimmediate concern is the impact of higher energy prices. Luke highlights the Tim Baker with someobservationsonbroader market reactions. Much of themarket reaction to the Iran war so far makes sense: equities fell Monday andTuesday, risky markets down the most, while USD rose reflecting its safe havenstatus. But a closer look is more nuanced: US Treasuries have sold off, showingno signs of safe haven demand as inflation worries overwhelm. Gold, the greatgeopolitical hedge, has fallen 3½% in two days, instead of rallying as is normal For the UK economy, Sanjay Rajanotesthathalf of the CPI basket is highlysensitive to energy prices. For the Bank of England, with the 2022 energy shockstill likely salient, fears of inflation persistence will likely increase should energy On the other hand,precedent suggests that Australia would be a net beneficiaryof any sustained energy price shock. If the implications for inflation werelarge enough that markets should expect a commensurate fiscal offset. In other words,because an energy shock would likely benefit Australia’s fiscal position, it matters And closer to home, we take adeep diveintoAustraliangovernment spending,which in 2025 reached a record high percent of GDP, even surpassing the covidera. Australia’s National Disability Insurance Scheme represents a structural shiftin government spending. Right now, it is colliding with a cyclical rebound in The day ahead Australia household spending, Jan.Consensus looks for a 0.4%mom rise.Also,goods tradefor January, consensus looks for a $3.8bn surplus. NZ building volumes,Q4. US trade prices, Jan; andproductivity, Q4. Alsolatest jobless claims. Eurozone retail sales, Jan ECBspeak:Lagarde, Guindos, Rehn AMERICAS USA: Services PMI (Feb): Revised down 0.6pts to 51.7. The composite PMI was revised down 0.4pts to 51.9 in February. USA: ISM services (Feb):