亚洲工业科技与亚洲新兴机器人：人形机器人：迈向年出货量百万台之路

Humanoid Robotics: The path to 1 million annual shipment Humanoid robot performance continues to impress (Asia Emerging Robotics: Key surprisesfrom the 2026 Spring Festival Gala), but investors also continue to challenge its actualuse and path to commercialization. We see 2025-2026 as an exciting milestone, when Jay Huang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2631jay.huang@bernsteinsg.com Dien Wang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2622dien.wang@bernsteinsg.com Asolid foundationof commercialization is the development of VLA and perfection oflocomotion. Important progresses in 2025 included: (1) high dynamic full-body controlby bridging motion tracking and sim-to-real, (2) from locomotion to loco-manipulation(see here), and (3) vision-guided perceptive motion, liberating robots from pre-definedmotion sequences (Exhibit 3). On the commercial side, humanoid robots have become Weibin Liang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2666weibin.liang@bernsteinsg.com The missing layer in the humanoid ecosystem. For industrial robots, dedicatedsystem integrators link robot suppliers with end-users by delivering turnkey solutions.For humanoid robots, a similar layer is needed for application development, training, anddeployment, but remains largely missing (Exhibit 8). We expect this layer to soon emerge Technically feasible applications in five years. Humanoid robot applications can besegmented by task complexity and environmental complexity (Exhibit 1). Performing simpletasks in controlled environments (e.g., entertainment, R&D, education) is thelow‑hangingfruit already commercialized. In this framework, in the next 1–3 years, we expect newapplications in two distinct directions: (1) “forward”, to higher task complexity while theenvironment remains controlled, such as material handling in factories and warehouses and Killer applications and TAM benchmarks. We identify three groups of applicationsthat can be technically ready in the near term and scaled up rapidly by system integrators(Exhibit 9): 1)Value from robotic mobility(e.g., entertainment, education, R&D). A usefulbenchmark is Apple’s Vision Pro (annual shipments ~400k units), with overlapping usescenarios. 2)Value from mobility + perception(e.g., patrol, guard, facility inspection).Security service workforce serves as the addressable market for this segment (>16 millionworldwide, the figure representing long-term potential installed base rather than annual DETAILS EXHIBIT 3:Important recent progresses of humanoid robots: 1) high dynamic full-body control, 2) loco-manipulation, and 3) vision-guided perceptive motion Source: Unitree, CCTV, Figure, LimX Dynamics, Bernstein analysis Source: Unitree, FANUC, Inovance, Shuanghuan, Bernstein analysis Source: Unitree, EngineAI, Leju Robot, Team Leehom, China Southern Power Grid, China Mobile, Apple, IDC, Hangcha, research articles, European Materials HandingFederation, ILO, Statistics of Japan, MPS, Wiki Commons, Bernstein analysis INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate Shuanghuan, Hesai, Tuopu, Inovance, Harmonic Drive Outperform, Sanhua Market-Perform, and Leader Drive BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE DISCLOSURE APPENDIX I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited andSanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社). Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respective VALUATION METHODOLOGY This research publication covers six or more companies. For valuation methodology and other company disclosures:Please visit: https://bernstein-autonomous.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action.Or, you can also write to the Director of Compliance, Bernstein Institutional Services LLC, 245 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10167. RISKS This research publication covers six or more companies. For risks and other company disclosures:Please visit: https://bernstein-autonomous.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action.Or, you can also write to the Director of Compliance, Bernstein Institutional Services LLC, 245 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10167. RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION EQUITY RATINGS DEFINITIONS Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index EUR (EDME) for stocks listed on the Europ