晨间洞察：2026年3月23日

Morning Insight:March 23, 2026 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： MEG:Tightening imports and declining port inventories; outright biasremains firm. Bullish calendar spreads (long nearby vs. deferred)On the supply side, significant run cuts at naphtha cracking units have On the demand side, polyester operating rates stand at 87.6% (+0.4%).While polyester margins remain broadly acceptable, production and sales From a valuation perspective, profitability across production routes Strategy wise, we recommend maintaining range trading on the outrightbetween RMB 4,500–6,000, and favor a bullish May–September calendar Polyolefins:Strong performance with >4% gains in Friday night session;supply disruptions drive upside, though demand-side transmission lags continue to provide strong cost support via crude oil, with olefinsoutperforming overnight. This is primarily due to ongoing disruptions in From a valuation perspective, upstream monomer prices previously outpaced downstream derivatives, pushing margins for oil-based polyolefin production to historical lows. As derivative production cuts are gradually implemented, polyolefins are seeing catch-up gains, driven by margin restoration. On the arbitrage front, export windows remain open. Supply losses aremore pronounced in Southeast Asia and South Asia, attracting continued However, as cost and supply-side disruptions are progressively priced in,domestic demand remains relatively subdued. Although the market is As a result, futures prices have been choppy, with calendar spreads Geopolitically driven disruptions to chemical feedstock logistics remainongoing. PP and PE are expected to maintain a firm bias, with key focus Synthetic Rubber:Near-term strength expected in BR; geopolitical premium In the near term, butadiene rubber (BR) is expected to maintain a firm upward bias. From a geopolitical perspective, ongoing tensions in the Fundamentally, international butadiene prices remain elevated, supportedby strong export arbitrage margins. In addition, visible inventories of At the BR segment, margins have been significantly compressed, prompting Overall, BR prices are expected to remain firm. However, geopoliticaldevelopments may significantly increase intraday volatility, with trading Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. China's fiscal policy will place greater emphasis on openness andshared benefits over the next five years, allowing countries worldwide to Against a backdrop of subdued global economic momentum, China will pursuea proactive fiscal policy at home while strengthening international into the global economy, Lan said at the China Development Forum 2026, China will deepen bilateral and multilateral financial cooperation andhelp improve global economic governance, he added, noting that the The country will foster a more fair, transparent and non-discriminatory business environment, enabling all market players, including foreign enterprises, to compete on a level playing field, the minister said. The China Development Forum 2026 is scheduled for March 22-23, with thetheme "China in Its 15th Five-Year Plan Period: Advancing High-Quality 2. China will maintain a supportive monetary policy stance to create afavorable monetary and financial environment for stable economic growth, Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), made the "We will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy," saidPan, noting that China's social financing conditions are currently On the exchange rate of the Chinese currency renminbi (RMB), Pan saidthat China follows a managed floating exchange rate regime. Since the China has neither the need nor the intention to gain trade advantages through currency depreciation, Pan said. The RMB has made positive progress in internationalization in recentyears, providing domestic and foreign entities with more diversified Pan also emphasized steady promotion of high-level opening up of thefinancial sector, deepening financial market connectivity and cross- He welcomed overseas investors to engage and invest in China's financial 3. China Huadian Corporation Ltd. announced on Saturday that thecountry's first 550-megawatt F-class gas turbine unit has officially The unit is part of the Huadian Chongqing Tongnan gas power project insouthwest China's Chongqing. With a total installed capacity of about 1.1 Once fully operational, the project is expected to generate around 2.1billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, enough to meet the yearly According to China Huadian Corporation, natural gas power serves as akey, supportive and flexible energy source for building a modern power Compared with coal-fired units, gas turbines offer sign