2025 US Holiday Shopping Forecast
Methodology
- Adobe Digital Insights analyzed over 1 trillion visits to US retail websites across 100 million product SKUs in 18 categories, using Adobe Experience Cloud data.
- Complementary survey based on responses from 5,000 U.S. consumers (September 9–16, 2025).
Key Forecasts
- Online Spending: $250 billion in the holiday season.
- Black Friday vs. Cyber Week: Black Friday gains share of Cyber Week growth.
- Mobile-First Trend: Mobile revenue share continues to rise, marking the first fully mobile-first holiday year.
- Category Growth: Varied growth expected across major categories; price sensitivity eases as promotions remain a growth driver.
- Buy Now, Pay Later: Growing momentum ahead of holidays.
- Curbside Pickup: Driven by last-minute holiday gifts.
- Generative AI: Traffic surges as AI assistants reshape shopping; 72% of consumers use AI for product discovery.
AI Traffic & Conversion
- AI Visits: Desktop leads but mobile share rising (44% year-over-year increase).
- Conversion Rates: AI conversion surpasses traditional conversion (AI visits worth as much as non-AI visits).
Marketing Channels
- Total Revenue Share: Social networks (up 15%) and social media affiliates (up 12%) lead growth.
- Fastest-Growing Referral: Reddit (up 30%).
- Social Media Lead: Instagram extends lead over TikTok.
Top 5 AI Trends Transforming Holiday Shopping
#1 AI in Product & Brand Discovery
- Generative AI Tools: 72% use AI for discovery, recommendations, and gift ideation.
- Optimization Strategies:
- Near-term: Audit brand citations, structure content (schema markup), and strengthen authority.
- Long-term: "Wikipedia" your brand for AI comprehension.
#2 AI in the Shopping Experience
- Personalization: AI-powered shopping becomes more personalized (72% satisfied with AI recommendations).
- Conversational AI: Unified, brand-governed experiences with natural dialogue and real-time intent detection.
#3 AI in the Customer Journey
- Real-Time Capabilities: 70% of shoppers prefer real-time responses; 68% of retailers use AI to detect shifting intent.
- Holiday Optimization: AI-powered analytics to balance shopper segments and personalize in real time.
#4 AI Supercharging Creativity
- Firefly Insights: Generative AI reveals consumer creativity trends (e.g., Labubu rise, holiday color palettes).
- Content Economics: AI accelerates on-brand content creation, but verification and streamlined workflows remain challenges.
#5 AI Adoption Acceleration
- Agentic AI Growth: 68% of retailers lack formal AI governance but expect strong growth in AI-powered assistance, content, and automation.
2026 and Beyond: AI New Year's Resolutions
- Focus on AI governance, real-time analytics, and omnichannel orchestration.
Related Resources
- Holiday retail trends, AI search landscape, Black Friday transformation, Adobe Journey Optimizer, and upcoming insights events.
