彭博-全球液化天然气市场即将过剩20250910

Global LNG Market Faces LoomingSupply Glut After Years of Scarcity全球液化天然⽓市场在多年短缺后⾯临供应过剩的隐忧 ByAnna Shiryaevskaya,Ruth Liao, andStephen Stapczynski作者：Anna Shiryaevskaya、Ruth Liao和Stephen Stapczynski September 8, 2025 at 2:00 PM GMT+8Updated on更新于September 8, 2025 at 4:54 PM GMT+8 Takeawaysby Bloomberg AI 彭博⼈⼯智能整理要点 The global market for liquefied natural gas faces amultiyear supply glut starting in 2026, potentiallypushing prices to the lowest since the energy crisistriggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. ⾃2026年起，液化天然⽓全球市场将⾯临多年供应过剩，可能使价格降⾄⾃俄罗斯⼊侵乌克兰引发的能源危机以来的最低⽔平。 The International Energy Agency expects the biggestboost in LNG production next year since 2019, withexports from the US already booming and more bigprojects to follow. 国际能源署预计，明年液化天然⽓产量将迎来⾃2019年以来的最⼤增幅，美国的出⼝已在蓬勃增⻓，且更多⼤型项⽬将陆续投产。 Consumers can expect cheaper power and lowerheating costs as the supply glut leads to lower prices,with gas prices in Europe and Asia potentially fallingbelow $10 per million British thermal units by the fourth quarter of 2026. 消费者可以期待更便宜的电⼒和更低的取暖费⽤，因为供应过剩会导致价格下跌，欧洲和亚洲的天然⽓价格可能在2026年第四季度跌破每百万英热单位10美元。 The global market for liquefied natural gas faces amultiyear supply glut starting in 2026, potentiallypushing prices for the crucial fuel to the lowest sincethe energy crisis triggered by Russia’s full-scaleinvasion of Ukraine. ⾃2026年起，液化天然⽓全球市场将⾯临多年供应过剩，可能使这⼀关键燃料的价格降⾄⾃俄罗斯全⾯⼊侵乌克兰引发的能源危机以来的最低⽔平。 After four years of tight markets, the InternationalEnergy Agency expects the biggest boost in LNGproduction next year since 2019. Exports from the USare already booming as Venture Global Plc’s new plantin Plaquemines, Louisiana ramps up faster thanexpected, and more big projects will follow with theenthusiastic support of the Trump administration. 经过四年的供需紧张后，国际能源署预计明年液化天然⽓产量将迎来⾃2019年以来的最⼤增幅。随着VentureGlobal Plc位于路易斯安那州普莱克明斯的新⼯⼚加速投产并超出预期，美国的出⼜已开始繁荣，且在特朗普政府的热情⽀持下，更多⼤型项⽬将随之⽽来。 Meanwhile in China, which was supposed to be themain growth market for the fuel, imports arecontracting. The country’s domestic gas output hasrisen and a majorpipeline dealwith Russia is seenfurther squeezing its LNG purchases. 与此同时，在本该成为该燃料主要增长市场的中国，进⼜量正在收缩。该国的天然⽓国内产量已上升，与俄罗斯达成的⼀项⼤型管道协议被视为将进⼀步压缩其液化天然⽓采购。 LNG gluts have been predicted before and failed tomaterialize, but this time looks different because somuch new capacity is on the brink of completion.Industry executives gathering in Milan this week at theGastech conferencewill be discussing trends that couldbring cheaper power and lower heating costs toconsumers around the world, while also acceleratingthe shift away from dirtier fuels such as coal and oil. 此前⼈们也曾预测过液化天然⽓过剩，但未能成真；不过这⼀次看起来有所不同，因为⼤量新产能即将完⼯。本周在⽶兰召开的Gastech会议上聚集的⾏业⾼管们将讨论那些可能为全球消费者带来更便宜电⼒和更低取暖成本的趋势，同时也将加速从煤炭和⽯油等更脏燃料的转变。 “With more LNG capacities coming online in 2026, themarket should loosen after the first quarter,” saidAldoSpanjer, head of energy strategy at BNP Paribas SA.“We’re going to see supply length coming in toward the second half of 2026 and into 2027.” “随着更多液化天然⽓产能在2026年上线，市场应该会在第⼀季度过后趋于宽松，”法国巴黎银⾏（BNP ParibasSA）能源策略主管阿尔多·斯潘耶（Aldo Spanjer）说。“我们将看到供给在2026年下半年并延续⾄2027年开始过剩。” LNG Market Will Start Shift to Glut Next Year液化天然⽓市场明年将开始转向供过于求 Excess supply供应过剩 Consumers shouldn’t expect immediate price relief,especially in Europe where winter is set to start withlower inventoriesthan usual. Over the next sixmonths, the supply buffer will remain slim and theregion will still be competing with Asia for LNG cargoes, with the potential for price spikes in colderperiods, saidMartijn Rats, global commoditiesstrategist and head of European energy research atMorgan Stanley. 消费者不应指望⽴即获得价格缓解，尤其是在欧洲，那⾥的冬季将以低于往常的库存开始。摩根⼠丹利（MorganStanley）全球⼤宗商品策略师兼欧洲能源研究主管马丁·拉特斯（Martijn Rats）表⽰，在未来六个⽉内，供应缓冲仍将很薄弱，该地区将继续与亚洲争夺液化天然⽓货物，在较冷时期可能出现价格峰值。 But, “as we are out of the winter, a mild surplus willstart in the second half of the year, which will become asizable surplus in 2027 as production ramps up,” Ratssaid. 但“随着我们⾛出冬季，温和的过剩将在下半年开始，并在2027年随着产量的增加变成⼤幅过剩，”Rats说。 Supply Surge供应激增 More than 174 million metric tons of annual gasliquefaction capacity is currently under construction,which should raise global LNG supply to 594 milliontons a year by 2030, an increase of 42% from last year,according to BloombergNEF. 根据BloombergNEF，⽬前有超过1.74亿公吨/年的天然⽓液化产能正在建设中，到2030年全球液化天然⽓供应应提升⾄每年5.94亿吨，⽐去年增长42%。 It’s possible not all of this will arrive on time. A chunkof the new supply for 2026 will come from Golden Passin Texas, developed by Exxon Mobil Corp. andQatarEnergy, which has already been delayed by about12 months due to labor, contractor and constructionissues. Exxon says it’s nowon trackto deliver firstgas by the end of this year or early in 2026. 这些供应不⼀定都能按时到位。部分2026年的新增供应将来⾃德克萨斯州的Golden Pass，由埃克森美孚（Exxon Mobil Corp.）和QatarEnergy开发，因劳动⼒、承包商和施⼯问题已被推迟⼤约12个⽉。埃克森表⽰，现在有望在今年年底或2026年初实现⾸⽓。 But much of the US LNG expansion is alreadyunderway, with production up almost 19% in the firsthalf compared with a year earlier. In addition to thegrowing shipments from P