2025年零售业状况：年中展望与假期前瞻

Table of Contents IntroductionI. 3 The Retail Landscape: Mid-Year 2025 CheckpointII.5 Tariff Pressures Are Fueling Inflation, Slowing Growth7 The U.S. Consumer in 2025What to Watch for in the Second HalfStrategic Considerations for Advertisers91415 Planning for Holiday 2025III. 16 Key Considerations for Holiday 2025 Planning25 About This ReportIV. 27 Introduction Retail Performance in2025 Remains Steady As we enter the second half of 2025, the retail landscape is being shaped by a more cautious and complexeconomic reality. While the year began with strong retail sales and steady wage increases, macroeconomicvolatility has intensified in recent months. An unexpected Q1 GDP contraction, ongoing inflation, and newlyimplemented tariffs have created cost pressures and increased consumer uncertainty, changing both sentimentand spending priorities. Despite these headwinds, consumers have remained engaged, focusing on essentials, seeking value, andadjusting their behaviors rather than pulling back completely. Retail performance remains steady in manycategories, and innovation in media, technology, and personalization continues to create new opportunities forgrowth. This report provides a mid-year update on the macroeconomic outlook, consumer mindset, media landscape, andearly holiday projections, equipping brands with timely insights to guide planning and decision-making for Q3, Q4,and beyond. The RetailLandscape:Mid-Year 2025Checkpoint Understanding the State of Retail Today The first half of 2025 has shown a mixed economic landscape, balancing cautious signals with encouragingsigns of consumer resilience. Retail sales have remained steady across many categories, even as persistentinflation, tariff-related cost pressures, and a contraction in Q1 GDP have created new challenges as the yearprogresses. Yet despite these broader challenges, retail sales have consistently exceeded expectations. As of May, same-store sales tracked byNRSwere up 4.9% year-over-year, while retail and food services sales in April increased5.2% YoY, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Year-to-date, retail sales are up 4.8%, beating the NationalRetail Federation’s 2025 forecast range of 2.7% to 3.7%. This momentum suggests that consumers continueto prioritize essential categories and maintain spending, particularly where value and utility are clear, even asoverall sentiment remains mixed. Tariff Pressures Are Fueling Inflation, Slowing Growth As of June, the average U.S. tariff rate surpasses 15%, thehighest since the 1930s, with steep tariffs on Chinese goods(30%), steel and aluminum (50%), and other imports (10%).According to theOECD, these tariffs are directly causing aslowdown in GDP growth, from 2.8% in 2024 to an estimated1.6% in 2025, and pushing inflation toward 4% by year-end. Retailers are reacting in different ways. Some are alreadyincreasing prices, while others, particularly in competitiveor low-margin industries, have postponed passing costs toconsumers, hoping for future policy changes. However, withtrade negotiations stalled, more brands are likely to raiseprices in Q3 and Q4. While early-year inventory stockpiling has delayed the fullimpact on consumers, price hikes are expected to acceleratein Q3 and Q4, especially in tariff-sensitive categories such aselectronics, apparel, home goods, and food. This cautious approach reflects a broader sense ofuncertainty throughout the retail industry. Several publiclytraded companies, such as Target and Kroger, have alreadylowered their full-year revenue guidance, citing rising costsand softer demand. Many retailers managed to soften the initial impact bystockpiling inventory and delaying price hikes earlier in theyear, but these strategies are becoming less effective as costscontinue to rise.The Penn Wharton Budget Modelestimatesthat if tariffs are fully passed on to consumers, the long-termcost could average $22,000 for middle-income households. Retailers currently navigating this environment mostsuccessfully are those investing in diversified supply chains,flexible sourcing, and transparent communication aboutpricing. With back-to-school and holiday seasons approaching,staying ahead with proactive messaging that highlights value,quality, and product availability will be crucial in keepingconsumers engaged as pricing pressures increase. INFLATION IS EASING, THOUGH PROGRESS REMAINS UNEVEN U.S. inflation continues to show signs of moderation, although some pressures persist, especially in categories such as housing,groceries, and services, where prices remain high. The May Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.4% year-over-year, slightlyabove April’s 2.3% but below expectations of 2.5%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose by 2.8%, hitting a four-yearlow and coming in under forecasts. This marks the third consecutive month of declining core inflation, indicating a slow but steadydisinflation in many discretionary categories, such as apparel and h