近期联邦政策动态及《大而美法案》对美国电力市场的影响

US-wide policy note| August 12, 2025 REDACTED © Aurora Energy Research Ltd. 1The One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) was signed in to law on July 4, 2025. Many of the impacts,like the shortened tax credit timeline for wind and solar, are immediately clear. However,uncertainty persists surrounding safe harboring, FEOC compliance, and tariff rates. E x e c u t i v eS u m m a r y ▪A clear priority of the Trump 2.0 administration has been to pass a continuation of the 2017 TCJA,1set toexpire at the end of 2025. Taking a “current policy” approach, the OBBB moved through Congress via thebudget reconciliation process, paying for tax cuts by cutting clean energy support and Medicaid. ▪Nearly all energy-related aspects of 2022’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) were repealed or altered with thepassage of the OBBB. Clean energy PTCs and ITCs are no longer technology-neutral, and wind and solarprojects face a much earlier phaseout schedule than battery, nuclear, and other renewables projects. Windand solar projects face a hard 2030 placed-in-service deadline for achieving tax credits assuming theconstruction start and FEOC2provisions are met. ▪In addition to the passage of the OBBB, ongoing tariff negotiations, difficulty obtaining federal permits, anduncertainty with safe harbor compliance (via the July 7 Executive Order) contribute to headwinds facingrenewables and storage developers today. The loss of energy tax credits has the greatest impact on deployment in regions with low statesupport for renewables; ATC price impact ranges from $x.x-x.x/MWh by 2035.2 ▪In scenarios with the OBBB’s tax credit stepdown there arexxGW,xxGW, andxxGWfewer wind, solar, andbattery projects deployed by 2035 relative to Q3 2025 Central cases across the seven competitive ISOs. ▪States like California and New York have programs in place and political willpower to supplement renewablesprojects deployment, like carbon prices, RPS programs, and state-led needs to build out offshore wind.Despite this support, ATC prices still rise by $x.x/MWh and $x.x/MWh by 2035 in CAISO and NYISO,respectively, owing to limited alternative options to procure renewable energy. ▪Based on tax credit removal alone, renewables LCOEs3rise xx% in the short-term. Factors like safe harbordefinition changes, tariffs, and FEOC2compliance, will also impact tax credit availability and project costs. ▪Aurora’s Q4 2025 reports will include the full impact of the OBBB and other recent policy developments. Agenda II.Modelled impact across ISOs of tax credit removal The Trump administration has raised tariffs, shortened schedules forclean energy tax credits, and rolled back environmental regulations Non-exhaustive overview of federal policy relevant to energy President Trump signed multiple Executive Orders impacting theenergy sector on his first day in office Overview of President Trump’s first day Executive Orders Reciprocal tariffs raise imports from many countries well beyond the10% baseline, following months of uncertainty and negotiations A key part of the Trump 2.0 administration has been raising import tariff rates on various countries and sectors. These actionshave spurned retaliation from affectedcountries and legal challenges to the use of IEEPA as the basis for implementing higher tariff rates. While bilateral negotiations are ongoing among countries affected by“Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs and the courts decide on the legality of the IEEPA rationale, these higher tariff rates impact renewables projects economics today. Reciprocal tariff timeline ▪February 13:The Trump administrationannounced the “Fair and Reciprocal Plan” ontrade, indicating a goal to correct tradeimbalances.▪April 2:Liberation Day reciprocal tariffs wereannounced. This included a 10% baseline tax onimports with higher rates for many nationsrunning trade surpluses.▪April 5:The 10% baseline tariff took effect onimports from nearly all countries.▪April 9:The higher reciprocal rates initiallyannounced on April 2 went into effect. Hourslater, rates were suspended for 90 days.▪July 7:The reciprocal tariff implementation datewas extended from July 9 to August 1.▪July 31:Implementation of reciprocal tariffswere again extended to August 7.▪August 7:Liberation Day reciprocal tariffs cameinto effect. Many countries with higher ratesinitially struck deals with the White House. 31GW of Atlantic offshore wind capacity may face permitting delaysstemming from Trump’s Executive Order New duties on CMTV solar imports will likely shift supply chains, thougha newly launched probe into other Asian countries complicates this The Department of Commerce released final anti-dumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVD) rates for Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam (CMTV). The short-term impact on developers is expected to be mitigated as many panels are stockpile;, the longer-term mitigated by diversifying supply chains to the Middle East and Europe. Investigation timeline 2024 ▪April 2024:Th