The Electric Vehicle Council (EVC) submission to the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) 2024 Forecasting Assumptions Update Consultation highlights concerns regarding the overestimation of electric vehicle (EV) uptake in AEMO's Integrated System Plan (ISP). The EVC argues that the ISP's step-change scenario, predicting 3.9 million EVs on the road by 2030-31, is unrealistic due to several factors:
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EV Uptake Projections: The EVC notes that the ISP's EV uptake forecast mirrors solar adoption patterns, which were difficult to predict accurately. Current EV sales (33,400 in 2022, 87,400 in 2023) suggest a more gradual adoption rate. The EVC's central case predicts 1.5 million EVs by 2030, with an upper bound of 2.5 million if federal and state targets are met. The ISP's projection of 50% EV uptake by 2030 in major states appears unachievable within the given timeframe.
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Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs): The EVC emphasizes that PHEVs, with their 13-20kWh batteries and 80km electric range, will likely constitute a significant portion of future sales, particularly among Ute owners who require towing and off-road capabilities. The EVC expects PHEV numbers to remain high until at least 2035, as a full transition to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is unlikely without stricter regulations.
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Grid Impacts: Overestimating EV uptake could lead to inflated energy requirements and network capacity upgrades, slowing decarbonization and increasing electricity prices. The EVC criticizes the ISP's charging profiles, which overestimate peak demand contributions (380W per EV) compared to studies showing 250W per EV. The ISP's assumption of 69% unscheduled charging in Victoria is also challenged, as studies indicate 6-30% unscheduled charging depending on tariffs.
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Time-of-Use Tariffs and V2G: The EVC highlights the growing adoption of time-of-use tariffs (e.g., AGL night saver plan) that incentivize off-peak charging. These tariffs, combined with V2G capabilities, can reduce peak demand contributions to 100W per EV. The EVC notes that V2G is already in use in South Australia and expects widespread adoption with the arrival of CCS2 compatible vehicles.
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Recommendations: The EVC advises AEMO to:
- Reduce EV uptake projections to credible levels.
- Revise charging profiles based on ARENA studies and consumer adoption of time-of-use tariffs.
- Increase V2G participation expectations from 2025.
- Factor in V2G's role in offsetting EV charging load.
The EVC offers further data and is willing to discuss these points with AEMO.
