特朗普2.0：首个100天对加拿大经济与房地产的影响

Cushman & Wakefield•In the first 100 days, we have observed ahard shift in economic policy under PresidentTrump. From trade policy to immigration, DOGE to tax and spending policy—the TrumpAdministration has been busy.•Given the flurry of changes, the word that dominated the marketplace in the first 100 dayswasuncertainty.•The Canadian economy has remained resilient so far, but the policy uncertainty is beginningto weigh on some of theleading indicators pointing to slower growth ahead.•Recession odds are risingand short-term stagflation—meaning slowing economic growthand sticky inflation—is emerging as the new consensus for 2025.A stronger growthscenario is forming for 2026.•The situation remains fluidwith many developments still unfolding, and there may be bothpotential benefits and drawbacks to these policy changes that will unfold over time.The EconomyExecutive Summary •The property sector has largely remained resilientthrough the first 100 days. The leasingfundamentals held mostly steady while the capital markets were still finding their way butshowing flashes of early green shoots.•Industrial and retail will be most impacted by the tariffs,but overall, the leasingfundamentals are expected to remain resilient. Assuming no recession, our base case calls fora near-term slowdown in occupier demand, with upside materializing in 2026.•Rising construction costswill put some upward pressure on costs and slow theconstruction pipelinewhich was already slowing going into 2025.Existing assets will likelybenefit on a relative basis.•It will continue to be a bumpy road for the capital markets in 2025. In addition to the pricerecalibration, investors will also need to navigate through the tariff uncertainty.As theuncertainty fades,the recovery in the debt and capital markets will resume and gain morepace in 2026.Property Cushman & WakefieldDemand for Space Mixed Bag So FarTrailing Four-Quarter Net AbsorptionSource: Cushman & Wakefield Research, CoStar/Cushman & Wakefield Research2024 Q12024 Q22024 Q32024 Q42025 Q1Office (MSF)-4.1-5.3-5.2-1.1-2.9Industrial(MSF)6.5-1.7-3.9-2.9-7.5Multifamily(000s)14,80014,50015,40014,30014,900Retail (MSF)5.55.65.35.22.6 •The CRE sector came into 2025 withmomentum in some sectors. As the tableshows, demand for space is a mixed bagdepending on the sector.•Through Q1, despite the uncertainty,demand for space has held up.Quick recap:Officenet absorption continues to benegative but is trending better and the flightto quality continues.Multifamilyhad anotherstrong quarter in Q1 following an above-average year in 2024.Industrialdemand hasclearly slowed from the staggering growthyears coming out of the pandemic but wasmainly negative in Montreal and resilientelsewhere throughout Canada.Retail’smainissue is lack of supply as this sector is >98%occupied.•Clearly a weaker economy will result inweaker demand for space going forward, butin general, assuming a recession is avoided,the leasing fundamentals are generallyexpected to remain resilient.Key Observations Cushman & WakefieldSource: MSCI Real Capital Analytics6.5%-10.3%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q4GlobalCanadaCanada Capital Markets Lagging22022523023524024522Q122Q222Q322Q4Canada All Property CPPISales Volume Slightly Down (YOY)Pricing Still Correcting Key Observations•Heading into 2025,there was growingsentiment in the CRE investment space.•Although most global regions were showingsigns that a trough in markets had beenreached in both pricing and volumes,Canada appears to be lagging. In Q4 2024,volumes continued to mildly decline at a~10% YOY pace for the third quarter in arow, while others saw stabilization orincreases: APAC (-5.5%, less than Q3 2024when the decline was-16.3%), Europe(+16.8%) and the U.S. (+15.0%). Likewise,Canada’s CPPI has not mimicked patterns inother regions and is 1% off its Q3 2024peak. By comparison, the U.S. All PropertyCPPI is down 11% after peaking in Q2 2022.•Although all sectors have been hit by therecent market sell-off, CRE pricing has beenrelatively more resilient in public marketsand during periods of uncertainty—especially those accompanied by inflation—hard assets tend to be favored.•Despite that, rising uncertainty may create acloud over investor sentiment that derailssome of the recent positive progress. TRADEBETWEENCANADA ANDTHE U.S. Cushman & Wakefield17.520.525.40510152025302015Q12015Q32016Q12016Q32017Q12017Q32018Q12018Q32019Q12019Q32020Q12020Q32021Q12021Q32022Q12022Q32023Q12023Q32024Q12024Q3Effective Tariff Rate (C&W Baseline), %Liberation Day (Apr 2)90-day pause, China increase to 145% (Apr 9)Trump’s first termEffectivetariff rateclimbs from 1.5%to 3%Trump’s secondtermTariffs Will Spike, then Drift LowerU.S. Effective Tariff Rate on All Goods Imports, %Source: Moody’s Analytics, Cushman & Wakefield Research •Tariffs are clearly a big part of why there hasbeen a spike in uncertainty and marketvolatility.•The initially announced reciprocal tariffs(Apr