2024年欧洲工业品行业状况

TABLE OFCONTENTSIntroduction10 Key findingsState of the industryFocus topic: Ensuringinternational competitivenessMethodologyOverview of sector developmentWhat keeps CEOs up at night?Positive sector outlook with high analyst confidence 345233351621 Welcome to our 2024 State of the IndustrialGoods Sector report.“Hot and cold,” a quote from one of theCEO interviews that complemented ourmethodology this year, was a strong contenderin our internal debate for the best title for thisyear’s issue. Indeed, the data and interviewsreveal mixed messages, withdifferentrealities emerging depending on whethera company benefits from global megatrendslike electrification and digitization, its exposureto recessionary pressure due to the inherentcyclicality of a business, and factors such as size,global diversification, and specific countryrisks.While there is some dampening of themood in the industry, the quantitativeoverall development could hardly be better:Valuations of Europe-based industrial goodscompanies are up by more than 25% year-on-year, with main value drivers like revenue up7% (but beware inflation!) and profitabilityincreasing by 1 percentage point. And analystrecommendations — which are largely basedon expectations for the future — are at an all-time high.These topics, along with the top challengesand opportunities that keep CEOs up at night,are analyzed in Part 1 of our report. We’veenhanced this section with an AI-basedanalysis of the shareholder letters from theannual reports of our European companysample. And we have included a companyranking that highlights the top value creatorsof the year — led by, guess who?INTRODUCTION In Part 2 of the report, we take a deeper lookat how the competitiveness of Europeancompanies is evolving in the context ofgeopolitical shifts, the large-scale entryof Chinese industrial goods companiesinto international markets, and worseningcompetitive conditions in Europe. Weencountered serious concerns from CEOs —not just for their individual companies, but forEurope as a business location. However, fortheir own companies, they believe they stillhave levers to succeed on the internationalstage, such as making improvements athome, shifting manufacturing footprints, andrethinking global operating models, all ofwhich we discuss in detail — along with somecommon blind spots.Despite challenges and recessionary pressures,European industrial goods companies areholding up well. However, the competitiveforces at play demand an acceleratedtransformation, which will reshape bothcompanies and the industry. That’s theconclusion of our 2024 report, and I hopeyou enjoy reading it.Wolfgang KrenzPartner, Sector Leader IndustrialGoodsYours sincerely, 3 10 KEYFINDINGSMixed realities beneath the industrialgoods sector’s robust performanceOur analysis shows key numbers of particular interest:Value Growth, Continued:Our IGO Europe Index has shown 6.8% higher annual value growth thanthe MSCI Europe Index since 2014.Mixed Realities:Value of the three top performing sectors (semiconductor equipment OEMs, industrialcomponents, industrial software) grew by 33% year-over-year [YoY], a stark contrast to the -1% of thethree lowest performing sectors (power systems, off-highway equipment, productionsystems).Regional Value Migration:In 2023, value migrated towards North America (+3pp). Europe held up well(+1pp) while China lost ground(-4pp).Performance:Semiconductor equipment OEMs posted standout revenue growth (25% YoY), whileonthe profitability side industrial software players saw the biggestdecline.Winners:Top value creators are from the semiconductor equipment and industrial component sectors.ASML and Siemens led the charge, jointly adding nearly €100 billion in valueYoY.Inflation:Despite significant nominal revenue growth in 2023, the sector’s overall development in realterms remainedflat.Sustainability:While sustainability is taking more of a backseat in boardrooms and some companieseven rescinded targets, absolute emissions still decreased by 12% YoY for Scope 1 and 2.Concerns:Two-thirds of executives cite escalating geopolitical tensions and recessionary pressureacross Europe as top concerns. Worries about supply chain bottlenecks have subsided, dropping fromsecond to eighth place.Opportunities:Executives see opportunities in honing core competencies (76%) and developing greentech products (68%) in line with megatrends and increased regulatory pressure. Expanding into newmarkets like Southeast Asia, India, and the Middle East is also viewed as key.Outlook:Despite a complex landscape, a substantial 74% of analyst recommendations for Europeanindustrials are “Buy” or “Outperform,” marking an all-time high. 4 DEVELOPMENTOVERVIEW OF SECTORSOLID SENTIMENTDespite recent headwinds from global demand weaknesses and market uncertainty,industrial executives maintain a solid level of confidence in the industrial goods sector.However, compared to our 2023 report, the feedback is slightly more tempered, reflecti