2024年欧洲食品杂货状况：希望的迹象（英）2024

SignsofHope TheStateofGroceryRetail2024 –Europe– ©GettyImages Contents Forewordand introductiontotheteam3 StateofGroceryEurope2024: SignsofHope6Keytrendslookingforward13Overallimplicationsforgrocers23FoodandgrocerymarketKPIs25 Interviewswith fourinspirationalCEOs28 Acknowledgments, contributors,andcontacts41 Foreword FortheEuropeangrocerysector,2023wasallaboutinflation—again.Europeanfoodpriceinflationaveraged12.8percentin2023,reachingitshighestlevelsincetheendoftheSecondWorldWar.Whileunfavorablemarketconditionsputastrainonconsumerwalletsandmarginsarepressuredbyrisingcosts,therearesignsofhope:inflationhasstabilized,realwagesarerecovering,andfewerconsumersindicateanintenttotradedown,withsomegroupseveninclinedtotradeup. Thisreportexaminesthemostprevalenttrendsthatwillinfluencethegroceryindustryin2024andbeyond.Howcangrocersmitigatefurthercostincreasesandimprovetheirmargins?Willuptradingreturnandpropelgrocerysalesagain?Whatdoesthefutureholdforfoodtogo? Willsustainabilitytargetsbereachedontime?Whatneedstohappenforplayerstogetaheadintheonlinegrocerymarket?Howcangrocersdevelopretailmediabusinessesthatsupportprofitabilityreliably?WhereshouldgrocersinvestinAIandadvancedanalyticstoachievethehighestimpact?Finally,inaworldoftightlabormarkets,howcangroceryretailersattractandretaintherighttalentforfuturegrowth? TheStateofGroceryEuropeisanannualpublication.Thisyear’sreport,SignsofHope—TheStateofGroceryRetail2024:Europe,isacontinuationofapartnershipbetweenMcKinseyandEuroCommerce,anditisdesignedtoprovideexecutiveswithacomprehensiveviewofthemarketandfuturetrends.Inpreparingthereport,wesurveyedmorethan12,000consumersacross11Europeancountriesandmorethan30groceryexecutivesfrommorethan15countriesacrossEurope.Inaddition,weinterviewedfourgroceryCEOs.WecombinedEuroCommerce’spolicyandsectorknowledgewithMcKinsey’sglobalexpertiseandanalyticalrigor. Wehopethisreportwilloffernewinsightsandperspectivestohelpgrocersnavigateongoinguncertaintiesandtakeadvantageoffuturegrowthopportunities. ChristelDelbergheDirectorgeneralEuroCommerce DanielLäubli HeadFoodRetailMcKinsey&Company 3SignsofHope—TheStateofGroceryRetail2024:Europe Editors ChristelDelberghe ChristelisdirectorgeneralofEuroCommerce,theEuropeanorganizationthatrepresentsfivemillionretailersandwholesalers. AntonDelbarre AntonisEuroCommerce’schiefeconomistandleadsresearchontheroleofretailintheEuropeaneconomy. DirkVissers DirkisresponsibleforthedevelopmentofglobalinsightsatEuropanel. DanielLäubli DanielisaseniorpartneratMcKinseyleadingtheFoodRetailPracticeglobally. FranckLaizet FranckisaseniorpartneratMcKinseyleadingtheRetailPracticeinEurope,theMiddleEast,andAfrica(EMEA). RickardVallöf RickardisapartneratMcKinseyandaleadeditorofthereport;heleadstheFoodRetailPracticeinEurope. AlexandreKleis AlexandreisanassociatepartneratMcKinseyandaleadeditorofthereport. SignsofHope—TheStateofGroceryRetail2024:Europe4 ©GettyImages 5SignsofHope—TheStateofGroceryRetail2024:Europe StateofGroceryEurope2024 SignsofHope FortheEuropeangroceryindustry,2023wasachallengingyear.Inflationledconsumerstotightentheirbelts,leadingtoadropinvolumeandsignificantdowntrading.Asaresult,industrygrowthwassignificantlybelowfoodpriceinflation.FoodpriceinflationinEuropewas12.8percentin2023,1whilegrocerysalesgrewatarateofonly8.6percent.2Discountersandprivatelabelsbenefitedfromthismarketenvironmentandwereyetagainthewinnersoftheyear. In2024,weexpectmacroeconomicuncertaintytopersist,butatthesametime,ourresearchindicatesthefirstsmallsignsofrecovery.Thepressureonmargins,costs,andpricesremainsakeyconcernforgroceryretailCEOs,butleadersarelesspessimisticthantheywereinpreviousyears.Inaddition,thankstoinitialsignsofeconomicrecoveryandwageincreasesinmanycountries,consumerconfidenceisreturning.Still,ourconsumerresearchshowsthatrecoveryofconsumerbehaviorisverypolarizedfor2024.Whilemostconsumersegmentsarestillpricesensitiveandtradingdown,somesegmentsshowanincreasedappetiteforuptradingandinnovations. byChristelDelberghe,AntonDelbarre,DirkVissers,DanielLäubli,FranckLaizet,RickardVallöf,andAlexandreKleis 1BasedonEurostatdata,January2024. 2BasedonEuropaneldata. SignsofHope—TheStateofGroceryRetail2024:Europe6 2023:Againallaboutprice GrocerysalesinEurope3grewby8.6percentin2023.Thisgrowthwasaresultof12.8percentfoodpriceinflation,adowntradingeffectof1.8percent,anda2.0percentvolumedecline.Thisimpliesthatgrocerysalesinrealterms(thatis,adjustedforinflation)declinedagainin2023andarenow4.5percentbelow2019lev-els.Thisdecreasefrom2019isdrivenbyasmallvolumeincreaseof0.3percentandadeclineofthepriceperiteminrealtermsby4.8percent. Whileinflationeasedsignificantlyoverthecourseof2023,itwasstillthedominantfactoraffectingtheindus-try.Overallinflationcamedownfromahistorichighof10percentinOctober2022toastable3percentattheendof2023.Europeanfoodpriceinflationwasevenhigher,reachinga19.0percentpeakinMarch2023andanaverageof12.8percentforthefullyear.Pro-ducerpricesintheEuropeanUnionstartedtodeclineinearly2023,followingagriculturalpriceswithadelayofsixmonths.Foodpric