Market Summary Framework
1. Corn Market Outlook
- Support and Bounce: Corn futures found support at the uptrend line, bouncing over 10 cents.
- Global Weather Concerns: Ukraine and Russia wheat production estimates reduced due to heat and dryness. China's dryness and heat affecting wheat and corn areas.
- U.S. Ethanol and DDGS Exports: Strong exports in April, supporting domestic corn use for ethanol.
- Corn Sales and Shipments: 1.056 MMT net corn sales for 2023/24, down 11% from the previous week but up 16% from the prior 4-week average.
- USDA Reports: No changes to 2024/25 projected ending stocks for corn and soybean, wheat ending stocks lowered by 8 million bushels.
- World Corn and Soybean Stocks: USDA lowered 2023/24 world corn ending stocks to 312.39 MMT and 2024/25 to 310.77 MMT. World soybean ending stocks for 2023/24 lowered to 111.07 MMT and 2024/25 to 127.90 MMT.
- Brazilian Corn Crop: CONAB raised estimate to 114.14 MMT, USDA at 122.00 MMT.
2. CBOT July 2024 Corn Futures
- Current Market Values: Not specified in summary.
- U.S. Weather/Crop Progress: 95% of intended corn acreage planted, soybean planting ahead of average. Corn and soybean conditions strong, sorghum and barley conditions stable.
3. Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS)
- Prices: Averaged $164 per short ton, down $7 from the previous week.
- DDGS/Cash Corn Ratio: 1.02, down from 1.08 last week.
- DDGS/KC Soybean Meal Ratio: 0.44, down from 0.45 last week.
- Ethanol Production: 1,023 thousand barrels per day, down 4.6% week-over-week.
4. Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads
- Baltimore Port: Navigation channel fully restored.
- Panama Canal: Draft capability increased to 46 feet, effective late June.
- Houthi Attacks: Disrupting trade in the Red Sea and around the Arabian Peninsula.
- Baltic Indices: Mixed, Panamax and Supramax sectors firm, Capesize index lower.
- Grain Freight Rates: Firmer on all routes to Asia, Europe, and the Middle East.
5. U.S. Export Statistics
- Corn: Net sales down 11% from the previous week, exports down 16%.
- Barley: No net sales reported for 2024/2025, exports down 39% from the prior year.
- Sorghum: Net sales up significantly, exports up 88% from the prior 4-week average.
