2025年行业信用展望报告（第十版）

Industry Credit Outlook 2025 February 4, 2025 This report does not constitute a rating action. Foreword Dear reader, We recently published our Industry Credit Outlook 2025 reports for corporate and infrastructureindustries, the 10th annual edition of this series. We designed these reports to communicate ourcredit views on rated companies and the industries in which they operate. They draw on theassessments of more than 5,500 corporate and infrastructure entities that we rate globally. Thispublication brings the 25 individual reports together into a single volume, along with ourassessment of the common themes that emerge. Acknowledgements Wewould like to thank allthe colleagues who havecontributed to this reportto provide you with S&PGlobal Ratings' essentialinsights. The global corporate sector is in a relatively healthy position. Despite the difficulties posed byinterest rates moving structurally higher, a minor earnings recession, resurgent inflation, supplychain disruptions, and a significant debt hangover resulting from the pandemic period, we enterthe year with many positives. The global economy appears to have achieved a remarkable andhistorically rare soft landing. Inflationary pressures have eased, and rates are consequentlyfalling. Buoyant global financial markets have lowered financial risk premia and eased thesignificant burden of refinancing debt. Special thanks to MarissaScott in marketing and toour editorial team: SamuelZanger, Miguel Martin-Garcia, Kelliann Delegro,Alex Ilushik, Allie Bower,Annie McCrone, EloraKarim, JasperMoiseiwitsch, JonathanGreene, Kai Ruthrof,Natalie Thompson, OliverDirs, Rosanne Anderson,Vickie Scullar. Our analysts expect positive revenue and EBITDA growth for all industries, margins are stillexpanding, leverage declining, and interest coverage recovering. Even so, this is an outlookfraught with anxiety. The new U.S. administration is expected to be forceful in relation to tariffand trade policy, with the potential for damaging trade wars. The health of the corporate sectorbrings risks that companies begin to lose financial discipline and increase leverage to undertakeM&A or boost shareholder returns. Prospects for weaker credits are inherently subject toeconomic and financial volatility. AI and climate transition bring both risks and opportunities. Best wishes Gareth Williams Head of Corporate Credit ResearchS&P Global RatingsLondon Yucheng Zheng DirectorCredit Research & InsightsS&P Global RatingsNew York Gregg Lemos-Stein Chief Analytical Officer - Corporate RatingsCo-Chair, Global CCCS&P Global RatingsNew York Contents Key Themes5 CorporateAerospace and DefenseManufacturing as fast as the supply chain will allow15AutosCloudy skies loom over the auto industry27Building MaterialsStable credit quality on a weaker foundation41Capital GoodsGlobal friction could grind down growth in 202569ChemicalsSome improvement, but most markets remain challenged83Consumer ProductsVolumes remain anemic even as brands rein in pricing93Engineering and ConstructionE&C continues to expand on sound infrastructure spending109HealthcareRatings deterioration to moderate as cash flows improve122Homebuilders and DevelopersTariffs will test the foundation132Hotels, Gaming, and LeisureTravel and leisure spending faces policy uncertainty151Media and EntertainmentWatching for potential M&A168Metals and MiningCritical assets support credit quality185Oil and GasThe industry credit profile should remain healthy194Real EstateOffice REITs lag the sector's recovery203Retail and RestaurantsCautious consumer discretionary spending persists224TechnologyTech demand is strong but subject to U.S. trade policy242TelecommunicationsStronger signals for the sector258 Transportation 285 Infrastructure Asia Pacific UtilitiesBalancing a need for growth with the challenge of transition299EMEA UtilitiesEnergy transition investments reduce rating headroom318Latin America UtilitiesPolitical interference, high interest rates burden the industry328Midstream EnergyCredit quality is on solid ground338North America Competitive PowerDemand surge and IRA repeal risk dominate credit outlook349North America Regulated UtilitiesCapex and climate change pressures credit quality360Transportation InfrastructureRevenue growth moderates amid geopolitical uncertainties376 Industry Credit Outlook 2025 Key Themes GarethWilliams LondonHead of Corporate Credit Researchgareth.williams@spglobal.com •The corporate outlook appears fundamentally healthy with broad-based growth,margins expanding, leverage falling, and interest coverage recovering. •Anxiety around the potential for trade and tariff conflict is widespread, given thepotential risks for demand, inflation, financial market volatility, and supply chains. Yucheng ZhengNew YorkDirector, Credit Research &Insightsyucheng.zheng@spglobal.com •AI, climate risks, and energy transition are the broader themes with most tangiblecredit risk and opportunity, given un