3Q24美护珠宝行业业绩总结：分化加深，掘金高景气新品/新材料

证券研究报告 2024/11/3            化妆品：Q3收入增速放缓、盈利承压，分化继续加深 35% 限额以上企业商品零售总额服装鞋帽针纺织品类化妆品类金银珠宝类 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1Q24 1H24 1-3Q24 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% 美妆品牌商 上海家化 代运营商 壹网壹创 珀莱雅 丽人丽妆 丸美股份 若羽臣 水羊股份 凯淳股份 贝泰妮 生产商 青松股份 华熙生物 嘉亨家化 福瑞达 原料商 科思股份 敷尔佳 丽臣实业 润本股份 鼎龙科技 港股：巨子生物、上美股份 个护品牌商 拉芳家化 2020 2021 2022 2023 1H24 1-3Q24 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 上海家化 -7% 9% -7% -7% -9% -12% -4% -14% -21% 珀莱雅 20% 23% 38% 39% 38% 33% 35% 41% 21% 丸美股份 -3% 2% -3% 29% 28% 27% 39% 19% 26% 水羊股份 54% 35% -6% -5% 0% -10% -1% 1% -31% 贝泰妮 36% 53% 25% 10% 18% 17% 27% 14% 14% 润本股份 59% 31% 47% 21% 28% 26% 10% 35% 20% 敷尔佳 18% 4% 7% 9% 8% 9% 10% 7% 12% 巨子生物 25% 30% 53% 48% 56% - - - - 上美股份 18% 7% -25% 55% 114% - - - - 华熙生物 112% 147% 39% -18% -30% - - - 福瑞达 120% 117% 32% 23% 7% 3% 15% 1% -5% 品牌商 18% 28% 11% 14% 21% 10% 14.5% 12.9% 0.7% 2020 2021 2022 2023 1H24 1-3Q24 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 上海家化 -23% 51% -27% 6% -21% -59% 11% -126% -181% 珀莱雅 21% 21% 42% 46% 40% 34% 46% 37% 21% 丸美股份 -10% -47% -30% 49% 35% 37% 41% 27% 44% 水羊股份 415% 69% -47% 135% -26% -48% -23% -27% -130% 贝泰妮 32% 59% 22% -28% 8% -28% 12% 5% -153% 润本股份 166% 27% 33% 41% 51% 44% 68% 47% 32% 敷尔佳 -2% 24% 5% -12% -4% -4% -5% -3% -5% 巨子生物 50% 0% 21% 45% 47% - - - - 上美股份 225% 67% -57% 213% 297% - - - - 品牌商 19% 21.9% 2.8% 22.9% 30.6% -3.8% 18.3% 5.9% -42.3% 2020 2021 2022 2023 1H24 1-3Q24 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 上海家化 6.1% 8.5% 6.6% 7.6% 7.2% 3.6% 13.4% -1.3% -6.5% 珀莱雅 12.7% 12.4% 12.8% 13.4% 14.0% 14.3% 13.9% 14.1% 15.1% 丸美股份 26.6% 13.9% 10.1% 11.7% 13.1% 12.2% 16.7% 9.5% 10.4% 水羊股份 3.8% 4.7% 2.6% 6.5% 4.6% 3.1% 3.9% 5.2% -1.5% 贝泰妮 20.6% 21.5% 21.0% 13.7% 17.2% 10.3% 16.1% 18.0% -5.7% 润本股份 21.4% 20.7% 18.7% 21.9% 24.2% 25.1% 21.3% 25.0% 27.6% 敷尔佳 40.9% 48.8% 47.9% 38.8% 36.2% 35.0% 37.1% 35.6% 32.9% 巨子生物 69.4% 53.3% 42.4% 41.2% 38.7% - - - - 上美股份 6.0% 9.3% 5.4% 10.9% 11.3% - - - - 品牌商净利率 15.0% 15.3% 14.7% 15.3% 16.0% 11.7% 14.4% 12.8% 7.0% 2021 2022 2023 1H24 1-3Q24 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 上海家化 2.4% -1.8% 0.9% -1.1% -4.1% 1.8% -5.6% -12.9% 珀莱雅 -0.3% 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 1.1% -0.4% -0.1% 丸美股份 -12.7% -3.8% 1.6% 0.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.6% 1.3% 水羊股份 0.9% -2.1% 3.9% -1.6% -2.2% -1.1% -2.0% -5.0% 贝泰妮 0.8% -0.5% -7.3% -1.8% -6.6% -2.2% -1.4% -17.8% 润本股份 -0.7% -2.0% 3.2% 3.6% 3.2% 7.3% 2.0% 2.5% 敷尔佳 8.0% -1.0% -9.1% -4.5% -5.0% -5.6% -3.6% -5.9% 巨子生物 -16.1% -11.0% -1.2% -2.1% - - - - 上美股份 3.3% -3.9% 5.5% 5.2% - - - - 品牌商 0.3% -0.6% 0.6% 0.4% -1.7% 0.5% -1.0% -5.3% 2021 2022 2023 1H24 1-3Q24 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 上海家化 -1.2% -1.6% 1.9% 0.9% -0.1% 2.1% -0.9% -3.2% 珀莱雅 2.9% 3.2% 0.2% -0.7% -1.1% 0.1% -1.3% -1.9% 丸美股份 -2.2% 4.4% 2.3% 4.6% 3.8% 5.9% 3.4% 2.1% 水羊股份 2.9% 1.1% 5.3% 4.6% 5.1% 7.6% 2.0% 7.7% 贝泰妮 -0.2% -0.8% -1.3% -2.8% -2.7% -4.0% -2.0% -2.4% 润本股份 0.5% 1.1% 2.2% 3.1% 2.2% 2.9% 3.0% 0.1% 敷尔佳 5.5% 1.1% -0.8% -1.4% -0.7% -1.2% -1.5% 0.5% 巨子生物 2.6% -2.9% -0.8% -1.7% - - - - 上美股份 0.6% -1.7% 8.5% 7.5% - - - - 品牌商 -3.1% -0.8% 4.4% 5.3% 1.4% 2.4% 0.3% 1.0% 2021 2022 2023 1H24 1-3Q24 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 上海家化 -3.0% -1.2% 4.7% -0.1% 1.7% -3.5% 4.8% 6.8% 珀莱雅 3.1% 0.6% 1.0% 3.2% 3.1% 3.6% 2.9% 2.8% 丸美股份 9.2% 7.4% 5.0% 4.6% 3.1% 7.8% 2.3% -0.2% 水羊股份 1.8% 2.5% -1.7% 6.4% 6.1% 5.1% 7.4% 8.2% 贝泰妮 -0.2% -0.9% 6.4% -0.8% 3.3% -0.9% -0.8% 12.7% 润本股份 1.6% 4.0% -1.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.2% 2.4% 1.4% 敷尔佳 -0.7% 6.0% 5.5% 6.6% 7.0% 9.3% 4.6% 7.7% 巨子生物 9.0% 7.6% 3.2% 0.5% - - - - 上美股份 -2.0% 3.6% 6.4% 4.0% - - - - 品牌商 0.8% 1.3% 3.5% 3.2% 3.5% 2.3% 3.0% 5.8% 2021 2022 2023 1H24 1-3Q24 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 鼎龙科技 8.9% 18.5% -10.7% -15.0% -7.7% -23.3% -6.3% 10.8% 科思股份 8.1% 61.8% 36.0% 18.0% 4.7% 21.1% 15.0% -22.5% 丽臣实业 15.9% 10.8% 6.7% 11.4% 8.5% 16.5% 6.7% 3.5% 原料商 12.9% 24.2% 13.3% 10.7% 5.2% 13.2% 8.4% 4.5% 2021 2022 2023 1H24 1-3Q24 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 鼎龙科技 14.2% 58.6% 15.5% -18.1% -10.8% -12% -25% 8% 科思股份 -18.7% 192.1% 89.0% 20.2% -4.1% 37% 6% -50% 丽臣实业 -19.6% -32.9% 13.2% -26.1% -29.2% -15.9% -38.4% -35.1% 原料商 -13.3% 62.0% 58.4% 7.2% -8.7% 19% -4% -40%  2021 2022 2023 1H24 1-3Q24 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 青松股份 -4.4% -21.0% -32.5% -7.1% -3.8% -4.3% -9.3% 2.2% 嘉亨家化 19.9% -9.4% -3.4% -5.1% -5.2% -5.4% -4.8% -5.2% 生产商 0.4% -18.2% -24.8% -6.5% -4.3% -4.7% -7.9% -0.4% 2022 2023 1H24 1-3Q24 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 青松股份 亏损 亏损 扭亏为盈 扭亏为盈 亏损收窄 扭亏为盈 扭亏为盈 嘉亨家化 -28.3% -42.4% 亏损 -91.5% 转亏 转亏 -38.8% 生产商 减亏 减亏 扭亏为盈 扭亏为盈 亏损收窄 扭亏为盈 216.6% 2020 2021 2022 2023 24H1 1-3Q24 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 壹网壹创 -10% -13% 36% -16% 2% -1% 1% 3% -9% 丽人丽妆 19% -10% -22% -15% -33% -36% -23% -40% -47% 若羽臣 18% 13% -6% 12% 33% 39% 32% 34% 55% 凯淳股份 15% -6% -8% -16% -34% -34% -27% -40% -33% 代运营 12.3% -6.5% -8.7% -10.5% -12.6% -13.2% -6.6% -17.5% -14.8% 2020 2021 2022 2023 24H1 1-3Q24 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 壹网壹创 42% 5% -45% -40% -23% -17% -31% -15% 5% 丽人丽妆 19% 21% -134% 扭亏 扭亏 46% 减亏 3442% -9% 若羽臣 3% -67% 16% 61% 73% 71% 86% 66% 68% 凯淳股份 27% -43% -112% 扭亏 扭亏 162% 43% 扭亏 446% 代运营 25% -1% -92% 190% 44% 150% 30% 51% 72% 黄金珠宝：金价高位波动抑制终端动销，Q3收入与利润均承压 金交所黄金收盘价均价yoy 金条及金币消费量yoy 黄金首饰消费量yoy 金银珠宝类社零yoy 1Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q24 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% -50% -100%  公司 收入（亿元