衡量软实力：一个新的全球指数（英）2024

Measuring Soft Power: A New Global Index

Executive Summary

The recent increase in geopolitical tensions worldwide has sparked renewed interest in power dynamics. Soft power, defined as the ability to achieve desired outcomes through attraction rather than coercion or payment, has become increasingly important in an interconnected world. This paper introduces a new comprehensive Global Soft Power Index (GSPI) based on 29 indicators across six dimensions for a broad set of countries from 1990 to 2021.

Data Overview

The GSPI is calculated using a standard three-step approach:

1. Normalization of Variables: Adjusting variables to a common scale.
2. Aggregation into Sub-Indices: Combining normalized variables to represent specific dimensions of soft power.
3. Final Aggregation: Combining sub-indices into the final composite index.

Index Methodology

The GSPI captures the matrix of soft power characteristics, offering significant advantages in comparing soft power levels across countries and over time. Each sub-index represents a specific functional dimension of soft power, allowing for detailed analysis.

Index Results

• Range of GSPI: The index ranges from -0.59 in the Dominican Republic to 1.68 in South Korea.
• Statistical Significance: The "headline" GSPI does not appear to be statistically significant in explaining exchange rate volatility. However, the culture and global reach dimensions are highly relevant.
• Dynamic Changes: Over time, the soft power levels of countries vary. For instance, China's soft power increased significantly from 0.70 in 2004 to 1.17 in 2021, while the United Kingdom's declined from 1.32 to 0.85.

Application: Soft Power and Exchange Rates

The paper tests the impact of soft power on exchange rates, finding that low soft-power countries exhibit a different relationship with exchange rate volatility compared to medium and high soft-power countries. The global reach dimension is the most significant sub-index, aligning with the differentiation between medium and high soft-power countries.

Concluding Remarks

The GSPI provides a systematic approach to measure soft power across multiple dimensions, capturing the complex nature of soft power characteristics. This framework offers significant advantages in comparative analysis, making it a valuable tool for understanding and evaluating soft power dynamics globally.

Key Findings

• Dimensional Breakdown: The GSPI includes six dimensions: culture, education, global reach, institutions, media, and technology.
• Country Variability: Significant differences exist in soft power levels among countries, with notable variations over time.
• Economic Implications: Soft power, particularly global reach, plays a crucial role in explaining exchange rate volatility.

This comprehensive index offers a robust method for analyzing and understanding the multidimensional aspects of soft power, contributing to the growing literature on this critical aspect of power dynamics.