联合国贸易发展委员会年贸易优惠展望[高级副本]（英）

Trade Preferences Outlook 2024

Introduction

The report provides an overview of trade preferences and their evolution, focusing on their adaptation to modern trade dynamics. It highlights the need to update and refine existing trade preference mechanisms to align with the realities of the 21st century.

Executive Summary

1. Updating the Design and Operation of Existing Trade Preferences

   • The report discusses the need to modernize existing trade preferences to enhance their effectiveness and relevance.

2. Adapting Trade Preferences to the 21st Century Trade

   • Emphasis is placed on adapting trade preferences to address the challenges and opportunities of contemporary global trade.

3. Expanding Trade Cooperation Beyond Tariffs

   • The report explores ways to expand trade cooperation beyond traditional tariff reductions, emphasizing the importance of non-tariff measures and services trade.

Historical Background and Empirical Evaluation

1. Historical Background

   • The initial phase (1964–1994): The report traces the history of trade preferences, noting their role in fostering economic development and export diversification.
   • The second phase (1995–present): An analysis of how trade preferences evolved during this period, highlighting changes in trade patterns and policies.

2. Trade Preferences and Export Diversification

   • Empirical Evaluation: The report evaluates the impact of trade preferences on export diversification, using econometric models to estimate their effects.
   • Diversification as a Tool for Economic Development: Trade preferences are seen as a key tool for promoting economic diversification and growth.
   • Effect of Trade Preferences on Export Diversification: Detailed analysis shows that trade preferences significantly contribute to export diversification, particularly among least developed countries.
   • Probit Model Estimates: Empirical evidence supports the positive impact of trade preferences on export diversification.
   • Asymmetric Performance Across Product Groups: Variations in performance across different product groups highlight the uneven impact of trade preferences.
   • Asymmetric Export Performances Across Beneficiary Countries: Differences in export performance among beneficiary countries underscore the need for tailored approaches.

Current Reality Check

1. Preference-Granting Markets as Export Destination

   • The report assesses the current state of trade preferences, focusing on their role as export destinations.
   • Nominal Preferential Margin: Analysis of nominal preferential margins shows the extent to which trade preferences provide tariff advantages.
   • Effective Preference Margin: Examination of effective preferential margins reveals the practical benefits of trade preferences.
   • Preference Margins in Developing Markets: Detailed analysis of preference margins in developing markets highlights their significance.

2. Utilization of Preferential Tariffs

   • The report evaluates the extent to which preferential tariffs are utilized, noting variations across different markets.

3. Concentration of Benefits

   • Analysis of concentration of benefits among beneficiaries underscores the need for more inclusive approaches.

4. Trade Preferences and Global Value Chains

   • The report explores the role of trade preferences in facilitating participation in global value chains.

5. Non-Tariff Measures as a Major Trade Cost

   • The impact of non-tariff measures on trade costs is examined, highlighting their significant role in shaping trade outcomes.

6. Traditional and Emerging Sources of Diversification

   • The report identifies both traditional and emerging sources of diversification, providing a comprehensive view of current trends.

7. Services Trade and Economic Diversification

   • The importance of services trade in promoting economic diversification is emphasized, with specific examples and case studies provided.

Future of Trade Preferences

1. Trade Preferences – Design and Operation

   • The report outlines future directions for the design and operation of trade preferences, emphasizing the need for flexibility and adaptability.

2. Process – Domestic and International Coordination

   • Enhanced domestic and international coordination is highlighted as crucial for the effective implementation of trade preferences.

3. Trade Preferences for Global Value Chains

   • The report addresses the specific needs of global value chains, advocating for targeted trade preferences to support these complex supply chains.

4. Trade Preferences for New Industrial Policy?

   • The feasibility of using trade preferences to support new industrial policies is explored, with potential benefits and challenges discussed.

5. Beyond Tariffs

   • The report concludes by emphasizing the importance of moving beyond traditional tariff-based approaches to a broader range of trade policies.

References

• Comprehensive list of references, including academic journals, reports, and other relevant sources.