2024确保印度化工产业的竞争力研究报告
AI智能总结Executive Summary:
The Indian chemical industry has historically been a global leader in terms of demand growth and shareholder wealth creation, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20% in total shareholder returns (TSR) from 2014 to 2023, compared to the global average of 6%. However, this momentum was interrupted between 2020 and 2023, leading to a decline in average TSR growth to 9%, primarily due to falling margins. The chemical sector in India has traditionally outperformed the upstream and downstream segments within the industry's value chain, yet this trend has reversed over the last three years.
The Impact of Global Headwinds:
- Stalled Global Demand: The chemical industry has been affected by the slowdown in global demand, leading to a widening trade deficit and declining export volumes.
- Overcapacity in Key Markets: Overcapacity in key export markets, particularly Europe, has led to utilization rates dropping below 70% for several products, with domestic capacity remaining high and demand stagnating abroad.
- Declining Demand in APAC: APAC, accounting for approximately half of India's chemical exports, experienced steep declines in market growth, driving utilization down and prompting concerns of oversupply until 2025 due to the current demand-supply dynamics in China.
- Commodity Price Volatility: Geopolitical unrest, global overcapacity in certain chemicals, and changing demand patterns in China have exacerbated market volatility, impacting margins negatively.
Focus Areas for Indian Chemical Leaders:
To navigate these challenges and secure competitiveness, Indian chemical companies should focus on:
- Building Functional Excellence: Enhancing operational efficiency through digital and analytics-driven improvements to increase EBITDA by 400 to 500 basis points.
- Internationalization and Global Strategies: Developing or acquiring capabilities in global business development, customer access, legal entities, supply chain infrastructure, application development, and regulatory understanding to increase revenue by 10 to 30%.
- Accelerating Innovation: Focusing on both application-based innovation and new product development, particularly in import substitution, to potentially increase revenue by 5 to 10%.
- Sustainability: Proactively developing green alternatives and investing in bio-based opportunities as part of a strategic response to environmental regulations and customer preferences.
- Deepening Talent Pool: Strengthening skills and capabilities across functions like R&D, technical sales, and operations to ensure long-term competitiveness.
Future Prospects:
These strategic priorities aim to help the Indian chemical industry maintain its competitive edge and potentially achieve the ambition of a $1 trillion chemical market by 2040. By addressing the current challenges through focused action, Indian chemical companies can secure their position in a volatile global market.
