2024年年中煤炭市场报告

Coal Mid-Year Update (July 2024)

Key Points:

• Global Demand: Grew by 2.6% in 2023, reaching a new peak of 8.7 billion tonnes, primarily driven by China and India's substantial growth.
• Regional Dynamics:
  • China and India saw significant growth, more than offsetting declines in Europe and the U.S.
  • India experienced robust industrial coal consumption due to economic growth.
  • Europe and the U.S. faced declines in coal demand, with Europe's decrease largely attributed to the electricity sector's transition to renewables.
• Forecast for 2024: Global coal demand is expected to remain stable, influenced by contrasting trends across regions and potential fluctuations due to weather, economics, and gas prices.
• 2025 Outlook: Anticipated to stay on a plateau, with China being the key variable given its substantial contribution to global coal demand.

Supply Highlights:

• Production: Reached an all-time high of 8.9 billion tonnes in 2023, with China, India, and Indonesia leading the way.
• China aimed to increase production for energy security and to manage price volatility.
• India focused on boosting production to secure energy and reduce imports.
• Indonesia continued to expand production to meet international market demands.
• U.S. showed a slight decline in production, reflecting lower demand compared to increased exports and stock building.
• Russia experienced a slight dip in production, affected by sanctions, though domestic demand remained strong.

Trade Overview:

• Global coal trade volumes reached unprecedented levels, driven by the dynamics outlined above, particularly from China and India, and influenced by international demand.

Summary:

This mid-year update highlights the stabilization of coal markets following years of uncertainty, with global coal demand reaching an all-time high in 2023. The report emphasizes the dominance of China and India in driving coal demand growth, with significant impacts on global energy strategies and environmental considerations. The future outlook predicts a stable demand scenario for 2024 and 2025, with China serving as the pivotal factor influencing global coal demand trends. Supply dynamics show significant variations among key producing countries, influenced by local policies, market demands, and global trade patterns. The report underscores the complex interplay between coal production, demand, and trade, highlighting the ongoing shift towards cleaner energy sources while acknowledging the continued reliance on coal for global energy needs.