Andrés Arauz, the candidate for the coalition Unión por la Esperanza (UNES) in Ecuador's presidential election, lost to Guillermo Lasso of the conservative party Creando Oportunidades (CREO). Arauz, who initially led polls and won the first round with 32.72% of votes, lost despite being favored in the second round due to Lasso's strong performance and his character as an ex-banker opposed to state interventionism. Lasso received 52.40% of valid votes.
Arauz's campaign, which initially focused on economic aspects, shifted to a debate on Correaism vs. anti-Correaism after the first round. This change was a significant factor in the outcome, as Arauz's image became entangled in discussions around social tensions, abuse of power, media attacks, political polarization, authoritarianism, and corruption.
The main reason for Arauz's defeat was the failure to change the campaign strategy for the second round, maintaining a confrontational approach that failed to expand his voter base. Instead of building a new narrative, the campaign concentrated on attacking Lasso, associating him with the unpopular government of Lenin Moreno and highlighting the bank holiday decision made by president Jamil Mahuad in 1999, when Lasso was the Minister of Economy.
Arauz also attempted to capture votes from women, environmentalists, and indigenous people, but his credibility was weakened by Correa's criticisms during his presidency. The campaign's focus on Correa's influence and Arauz's lack of charisma and leadership further contributed to this failure.
In contrast, Lasso was able to position himself as a guarantee for dollarization and good relations with the private sector due to his banking background, which counteracted the negative perception of his candidacy.
Correaism, despite its political capital, failed to translate into electoral victory. The campaign highlighted the limitations of relying solely on the former president and the need for leaders with their own profile. While the defeat does not signal the end of Correaism, it does require introspection and analysis of the factors that led to the rejection of Correa's tendencies among parts of the electorate.
