The report "Notes Internacionales CIDOB 211. Enero 2019" provides an analysis of the situation in Venezuela under the rule of the Chavismo regime. Despite leading to a significant economic and humanitarian crisis in the country, the Chavismo regime was able to secure another term in power in 2019. Key factors contributing to this were the consolidation of internal unity, control over the military, and the refinement of socio-political control methods. The regime has also managed to maintain loyalty from the military through their integration into government management, and has perfected methods to control society, neutralizing the independence of state institutions.
Venezuela's infrastructure is severely deteriorated, with the collapse of utilities services being emblematic. The healthcare system is particularly dramatic, with dramatic reductions in preventive campaigns leading to outbreaks of previously eradicated diseases like malaria. The World Health Organization reported that Venezuela experienced the largest increase in malaria cases globally in recent years. Hospitals, affected by chronic shortages of supplies and medicines, have become dangerous places for patients due to inadequate sanitation measures.
Economic hyperinflation, projected to reach 10 million percent by the end of 2018, has made basic necessities unaffordable. The government attempted to mitigate the effects by announcing currency conversion and salary minimum increases, but these had a negative impact on purchasing power. It now takes 25 minimum salaries to cover basic food expenses for a family, a clear indicator of extreme hardship for the population.
The Chavismo regime has managed to maintain power despite facing significant economic challenges and widespread loss of popular support. The opposition coalition Gran Polo Patriótico, which includes the majority party PSUV, lost control of the National Assembly after the 2015 parliamentary elections. However, the remaining public powers were significantly infiltrated by the executive branch, limiting the Assembly's ability to act. The judiciary has been a key tool for the government to nullify Assembly decisions. In March 2017, the Supreme Court declared the legitimate elected Assembly in "contempt" and took over its functions, effectively ending the separation of powers.
Despite losing control of the National Assembly, the Chavismo regime maintained cohesion within its coalition, which comprises multiple political parties, social movements, and the military. This allowed the regime to consolidate control over the country's institutions, with Nicolás Maduro demonstrating the leadership necessary to maintain this control. He successfully imposed himself over Diosdado Cabello, one of the closest and longest-standing companions of Hugo Chávez, in the ruling party PSUV. Additionally, Maduro has been effective in advancing a process of "cleansing" within the party, removing influential figures.
In summary, the Chavismo regime has managed to remain in power in Venezuela despite significant economic and political challenges, through a combination of internal unity, strategic control mechanisms, and strategic manipulation of the legal system.
