The report "Prospectives des Métiers et Qualifications (PMQ): Review and Perspectives" from February 2018 provides an in-depth analysis of the French government's three completed PMQ exercises dating back to nearly thirty years. These exercises aimed at forecasting the evolution of professions and qualifications. The report outlines the historical context of these exercises, detailing their evolution from initial inception to the current stage.
Historically, the PMQ exercises have been initiated during economic downturns or recessions. For instance, the first exercise (PMQ I) was carried out during the late 1990s when the economy was experiencing a recession. This was followed by the second exercise (PMQ II) amidst the aftermath of the Internet bubble and the global financial crisis. The third exercise (PMQ III) was undertaken against the backdrop of the Eurozone debt crisis and the subsequent years of weak economic growth.
The report also delves into the methodology used in these exercises. The PMQ process involved extensive consultations with stakeholders including industry experts, national and regional employment, training, and professional guidance authorities. The exercises were conducted over a period of more than a year involving surveys, interviews, and international seminars. The findings were cross-referenced with previous projections and real-world developments to identify trends and discrepancies.
The main conclusions drawn from the exercises were that key trends over ten years were accurately forecasted, such as the tertiary sector and feminization of jobs, and the rise in high-quality jobs. However, significant discrepancies were noted for certain professions, highlighting that the predictive aspect of the PMQ exercises is not akin to precise forecasting.
The PMQ exercises are not merely about prediction; they serve as platforms for dialogue and reflection among employment, training, and professional guidance actors. They offer insights into future labor market scenarios and help shape policies and strategies. The report's conclusion emphasizes the importance of understanding past experiences and learning from them to improve future exercises.
In summary, the PMQ exercises provide a comprehensive overview of the French labor market's potential evolution based on historical data and expert opinions. They are crucial tools for policymakers, providing insights that can inform decisions on training, education, and employment policies.
