2024年中期策略：耐心资本，花开有时

4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 成交额(亿元) 收盘价 投资要点       请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 一、2024年上半年市场回顾4 1.国内主要指数表现分化，上证50涨幅最大为3.0%4 2.红利价值表现占优，银行和煤炭行业表现较好4 3.国际市场主要指数涨幅不一5 二、2024年上半年国内外经济情况6 1.国内宏观经济数据：经济平稳复苏，出口同比增幅持续走扩6 2.国内宏观政策：新“国九条”助力资本市场高质量发展，财政政策和货币政策协调发力10 3.国内产业政策：持续关注政策驱动下景气改善的行业13 4.海外宏观经济：美国通胀数据同比增速放缓，发达经济体通胀回落有望开启降息周期15 5.全球重要事件：全球选举背景下，不确定性和不稳定性因素上升17 三、A股流动性分析18 1.公募基金新基金发行表现持续向好，股票型基金发行偏冷18 2.投资者风险偏好降低，融资融券余额有所下降18 3.上半年北向资金整体净流入19 4.上半年上市公司回购、增持规模整体处于历史较高水平20 四、投资建议20 1.红利价值配置性价比占优20 2.关注一季度业绩增速较快的行业22 3.关注新质生产力相关行业23 4.黄金和铜的中长期投资机会24 .........................................................................................................................5 ..................................................................................................................5 ....................................................................................................................................................6 ......................................................................................................................................................7 ......................................................................................................................................................7 ...........................................................................................................................................8 .....................................................................................................................................8 .......................................................................................................................................................9 ...............................................................................................................................................9 ....................................................................................................................................................9 ................................................................................................................................10 ....................................................................................................................................10 ............................................................................................................................12 ............................................................................................................................13 .....................................................................................................................14 .......................................................................................................................................15 ...............................................................................................................................................15 ............................................................................................................................16 .....................................................................................................................16 .........................................................................................................................17 ...................................................................................................18 .................................................................................................................................19 ..................................................................................................................19 ..........................................................................................................21 .......................................................................................................21 ...........................................................................................................................................21 ..........................................................................................................24 .........................................................................................................................4 ......................................................................................................................................11 ..................................................................................................................................20 ..............................................................................................................................20 ......................................................................................................................................21 .....................................................................................................22 ..............................................................................................................23 20