2024管理贷款组合中与物理气候相关的风险报告（英文版）

Managingphysicalclimate-relatedrisksinloanportfolios TechnicalSupplementtothe2024ClimateRiskLandscapeReport Managingphysicalclimate-relatedrisksinloanportfoliosi Contents| May2024 Disclaimer ThisreportwascommissionedbytheUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgrammeFinanceInitiative.Theprojectwasco-ledbytheMunichReinsuranceCompanyandaffiliates(MunichRe).UNEPFIandMunichReshallnothaveanyliabilitytoanythirdpartyinrespectofthisreportoranyactionstaken,ordecisionsmadeasaconsequenceoftheresults,advice,orrecommendationssetforthherein.Thisreportdoesnotrepre-sentinvestmentadviceorprovideanopinionregardingthetransaction’sfairnesstoanyparties.Theviewsexpressedhereinarevalidonlyforthepurposestatedhereinandasofthedatehereof.Informationfurnishedbyothers,uponwhichallorportionsofthisreportarebased,isbelievedtobereliablebuthasyettobeverified.Nowarrantyisgivenastotheaccuracyofsuchinformation.PublicinformationandindustryandstatisticaldataarefromsourcesUNEPFIandMunichRedeemsreliable;however,UNEPFIandMunichRemakenorepresentationoftheaccuracyorcompletenessofsuchinformationandhaveacceptedtheinformationwithoutfurtherverification.Noresponsibilityistakenforchangesinmarketconditions,laws,orregulations,andnoobligationisassumedtorevisethisreporttoreflectchanges,events,orstateswhichoccurafterthedatehereof.Thisdocumentmaycontainpredictions,forecasts,orhypotheticaloutcomesbasedoncurrentdata,historicaltrends,andhypotheticalscenarios.Anysuchpredic-tions,forecasts,orhypotheticaloutcomesaresubjecttoinherentrisksanduncertainties.Actualresultscouldbeimpactedbyfutureeventsthatcannotbepredictedorcontrolled,including,withoutlimitation,changesinbusinessstrategies,thedevelopmentoffutureproductsandservices,changesinmarketandindustryconditions,theoutcomeofcontingencies,changesinmanagement,changesinlaworregulations,aswellasotherexternalfactorsoutsideofUNEPFI’sandMunichRe’scontrol.UNEPFIandMunichReacceptnoresponsibilityforactualresultsorfutureevents.UNEPFIandMunichReshallhavenoresponsibilityforanymodificationsto,orderivativeworksbasedupon,themethodologymadebyanythirdparty.Thispublicationmaybereproducedinwholeorinpartforeducationalornon-profitpurposes,providedacknowledgmentofthesourceismade.Thedesignationsemployedandthepresentationofthematerialinthispubli-cationdonotimplytheexpressionofanyopinionwhatsoeveronthepartofUNEnvi-ronmentProgrammeconcerningthelegalstatusofanycountry,territory,city,orareaorofitsauthoritiesorconcerningthedelimitationofitsfrontiersorboundaries.Moreover,theviewsexpresseddonotnecessarilyrepresentthedecisionorthestatedpolicyoftheUNEnvironmentProgramme,nordoescitingtradenamesorcommercialprocessesconstituteanendorsement. Coverimage:unsplash.com/photos/typhoon-i9w4Uy1pU-s Managingphysicalclimate-relatedrisksinloanportfolios Thisproject,acollaborativeeffortledbytheUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgrammeFinanceInitiative(UNEPFI)RiskCentreandrunbytechnicalexpertisefromMunichRe,hasbeenpivotalinadvancingthemanagementofphysicalclimate-relatedrisksinloanportfolios. Theinsightssharedinthisreporthavebeencontributedbythefollowingauthors: LeaLorkowski SeniorConsultant AdrienBlanot ClimateFinanceLead LukasKocher ConsultantClimateChangeSolutions Theprojectwassetup,managed,andcoordinatedbyUNEPFI,specifically:KaiRemcoFischer(kai.fischer@un.org)andDavidCarlin(david.carlin@un.org).Thefoundationalsupportanddiverseexpertiseforthisprojectwereprovidedbykeyfinancialinstitutions,including: Theircontributionswerecrucialinshapingtheoutcomesofourworkinggroup. Acknowledgements Theauthorsextendtheirprofoundgratitudetothemyriadofindividualswhosecontri-butionswerepivotalinthedevelopmentofthisreport.Specialthanksareowedtothememberswhogenerouslysharedtheirinvaluableinsightsandinformation,enrichingthecontentanddepthofthisanalysis. WewouldalsoliketoexpressourheartfeltappreciationtoMaxineNelsonfromGARPforherthoroughreviewandsupport,whichsignificantlyenhancedthequalityandimpactofourwork. Thiscollaborativeeffortreflectsacollectivededicationtoadvancingtheunderstandingofphysicalclimate-relatedriskswithinloanportfolios.Thiswouldnothavebeenpossi-blewithoutthebroadspectrumofexpertiseandperspectivesprovidedbyourcontribu-tors.Wearedeeplyappreciativeofthetime,expertise,andcommitmentdemonstratedbyallinvolved,whichhavebeeninstrumentalinshapingthiscomprehensiveguide. Contents Executivesummaryviii 1.Introduction:Settingthecontext1 2.Adaptingriskframeworksforclimateriskconsiderations5 2.1Regulatoryrequirements6 2.2Riskappetite10 2.2.1Ownershipandintegrationintogovernance11 2.2.2Keycomponentsofriskappetite14 2.2.3Existingclimateriskcategories15 2.2.4Learningsonriskappetiteforclimateriskfromthe (re)insurancesector18 3.Strategiesformanagingphysicalclimaterisk20 3.1Physicalclimateriskexposureinlendingportfolios21 3.1.1Residentialmortgage22 3.1.2Businessandagriculturallending24 3.2Banks’responsestonaturalcatastropheevents24 4.Proposedframeworkformanagingphysicalclimateriskinlendingportfolios27 4.1Accept29 4.2Avoid30 4.3Adapt31 4.4Transfer32 4.4.1Loanpaymentdeferrals33 4.5Overviewofdifferentriskmanagemen