沙特阿拉伯2024年经济展望（英）

SEacuodnioAmraibciaOutlook2024 CONTENTS KeyTakeaways3 Summary4 TheGlobalOutlook6 MENARegionalOutlook8 OilOutlook9 SaudiArabiaGrowthOutlook10 SaudiArabiaMonetaryPolicyOutlook14 SaudiArabiaFiscal&PublicDebtOutlook16 SaudiArabiaExternalSectorOutlook18 SaudiArabiaLabourMarketOutlook21 ThingstoWatchin202426 MacroeconomicDashboard28 KeyTakeaways ThisreportprovidesananalysisofSaudi’smacroeconomicperformanceinthefirstfivemonthsof2024andgrowthprospectsfortheremainderoftheyear.Itassessesthecountry’sfiscalpolicy,externalsector,labormarket,andbusinessenvironmentbasedonprojectionsmadebytheMinistryofFinanceaheadofthefiscalyearandtheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)inApril2024.Thereportconcludeswithhighlightsofchallengesand sectorstowatchinthecomingyear.Belowareourkeytakeaways. SaudiArabiaisactivelydiversifyingitseconomybyreducingitsrelianceonoilandexpandingitsnon-oilsector.Afterbeingstagnantin2023(growthrateof0.03%),theeconomyisexpectedtogrowby2.6%thisyearaccordingtotheIMF,moderatelybelowSaudi’s4.4%projectioninthe2024budget.Thegrowthtrendofnon-oileconomicactivityreflectsapersistentexpansion,withongoinginvestmentsintheprivatesectorandnon-oilindustries. Despitetheexpectedfiscaldeficitin2024tofinancenon-oildevelopmentalprojects,publicdebtinSaudiArabiaremainssustainable.Withthefiscalbalanceexpectedtobeindeficitoverthemediumtermuntil2026,theKingdom’spublicfinancialmanagementsystemishealthy,havingastrongacreditratingprofile,lowdebt-to-GDPratio,significantforeignreserves,andmomentumtodiversifysourcesofincome. InflationinSaudiArabiaisexpectedtoremainlowandbeamongthelowestgloballyin2024,positioningthecountryfavorablyforprivateconsumptionin thetravel,tourism,andhospitalitysectors.Private consumptionin2023reachedanall-timehighoverthepasttwodecadesande-commercetransactionsfor2024areonpacetoalsoregisterarecord-high,astheSaudiArabianMonetaryAuthorityremainssteadfastinmaintainingthepegoftheSaudiriyaltotheUSdollar. SaudiArabiaaimstoattractandretainforeigndirectinvestment(FDI)amidconcernsoverasluggishgrowthamongitskeytradeandFDIpartners. ThePublicInvestmentFund(PIF)andtheNationalDevelopmentFund(NDF)willcontinuetoprovidestimulustotheeconomytosustaintrustandappetiteamongglobalinvestors.TheKingdomisalsoprioritizingmeasuresthatstrengthenitspositionas aglobaltradinghubandmitigatetradedisruptionsfromrecentgeopoliticaltensions. TheunemploymentrateacrossgendersandnationalitiesinSaudiArabiaisdecreasingandthelaborforceparticipationrateforwomenisonanupwardtrend,indicatingastrongmomentumofemploymentinthecountry.Accordingtothemostrecentemploymentstatistics,SaudiismeetingitsVision2030targetsofcuttingtheunemploymentratebelow7%,reaching4.4%inQ4of2023. NewchallengesloomforSaudi’slabormarketasitisshortonlocalspecializedtalent,reliesonforeignlabor,andfacesgrowingcompetitionbetween thepublicandprivatesectors.Foreignemployeesconstitutemostoftheworkforce,translatingtoasizableremittanceoufflow,andalmosttwo-thirdsofSaudiuniversitygraduatesspecializeoutsidetechnologicalfieldslikeengineeringandmedicinethatgovernSaudi’sdisruptivesectors. SEacuodnioAmraibciaOutlook2024 SUMMARY Inthefaceofachallengingglobaleconomicenvironment,SaudiArabiaisdiversifyingitseconomy,reducingitsrelianceonoil,andfocusingon expandingthenon-oilsector.Despiteexperiencingstagnationin2023,thecountrylookedtoscaleupinvestmentsintheprivatesectortogrowtheeconomyby4.4%thisyearcomparedto0.03%theyearprior.Asitstandshowever,thegrowthratefor2024isprojectedatamodest2.6%accordingtotheIMF. TheKingdom'spublicfinancesarereassuring.Astrongcreditratingprofile,sustainablepublicdebt,andsignificantforeignreservesindicatestabilityandofferabufferagainstpotentialshocks.Thegovernmentintendstostreamlineoperatingexpensesanddiversifysourcesofincomewhilerunningadeficituntil2026toincreasefinancingofnon-oilsectordevelopmentprojects.Despitethedeficits,forecastsindicatethatpublicdebtwillremainbelowSaudi’sdebtceilingof50%. ThePublicInvestmentFund(PIF)andtheNationalDevelopmentFund(NDF)willcontinuetoprovidestimulustotheSaudieconomy,playingacrucialroleinbuildingtrustamongglobalinvestorsandattractingforeigndirectinvestment(FDI).However,therecentgeopoliticaltensionsaretriggeringtradedisruptions,likerisingshippingcosts,whichthreatentheflow oftradeandinvestment.Despitethis,SaudiArabiaremainscommittedtoitseconomicdiversificationeffortsandcontinuestostrengthenitspositionasaglobaltradinghub. Inflationinthecountryisexpectedtoremainlowin2024,hovering2.2%,positioningthecountrywellforprivateconsumptionandtourism.E-commercetransactionsareonpacetoregisterarecord-high, withthevolumeinQ1of2024threefoldthatin2021,andprivateconsumptionin2023recordeditshighestvalueoverthepasttwodecades. Inparallel,unemploymentcontinuestodecline,andfemalelaborforceparticipationisincreasing,surpassingthe2030targetaheadofschedule. However,meetingthegrowingdemandforspecializedtalentandmanagingcompetitionbetweentheprivateandpublicsectorsremainsaperennialchallenge,carryinglong-termimplicationssuchasincreasinglaborcostsandhinderedtalentretention. Thebusinessenvironmenti