新冠肺炎对伊朗伊斯兰共和国女性劳动力参与的影响（英）

PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10801 TheImpactsofCOVID-19 onFemaleLaborForceParticipationintheIslamicRepublicofIran Hai-AnhH.DangDjavadSalehi-IsfahaniMinhN.N.Do DevelopmentEconomicsDevelopmentDataGroupJune2024 PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10801 Abstract AlthoughfemalelaborforceparticipationintheIslamicRepublicofIranisamongthelowestintheworld,thereisalackofstudiesontheeffectsoftheCOVID-19pandemiconthecountry’sfemalelaborforceparticipation.Thispaperfindsthatfemalelaborforceparticipationdecreasedduringthepandemicyearsbyaround1percentagepointin2021and2022.Whencontrollingforexcessmortalityrates,thedeclinesincreasebyasmuchas3.9and8.7percentagepointsinlate2021andearly2022,respectively.Compared tothemodest,pre-pandemicfemalelaborforceparticipa-tionrates,thesefigurestranslateinto5percentand18–40percentdecreases,respectively.Thereisheterogeneity,withmoreeducatedindividualsbeingmorelikelytowork.Com-paredtomarriedindividuals,divorceesweremorelikelytowork,andthosewhowerewidowedornevermarriedwerelesslikelytowork.Theresultsofferrelevantinputsforlaborpolicies,particularlythoseaimedatreducinggenderinequalities. ThispaperisaproductoftheDevelopmentDataGroup,DevelopmentEconomics.ItispartofalargereffortbytheWorldBanktoprovideopenaccesstoitsresearchandmakeacontributiontodevelopmentpolicydiscussionsaroundtheworld.PolicyResearchWorkingPapersarealsopostedontheWebathttp://www.worldbank.org/prwp.Theauthorsmaybecontactedathdang@worldbank.organdsalehi@vt.edu. ThePolicyResearchWorkingPaperSeriesdisseminatesthefindingsofworkinprogresstoencouragetheexchangeofideasaboutdevelopmentissues.Anobjectiveoftheseriesistogetthefindingsoutquickly,evenifthepresentationsarelessthanfullypolished.Thepaperscarrythenamesoftheauthorsandshouldbecitedaccordingly.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthispaperareentirelythoseoftheauthors.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/WorldBankanditsaffiliatedorganizations,orthoseoftheExecutiveDirectorsoftheWorldBankorthegovernmentstheyrepresent. ProducedbytheResearchSupportTeam TheImpactsofCOVID-19onFemaleLaborForceParticipationintheIslamicRepublicofIran Hai-AnhH.Dang,DjavadSalehi-Isfahani,andMinhN.N.Do* JEL:E24,I30,J21,O12 Keywords:COVID-19,employment,women’slaborforceparticipation,differences-in-differences,tripledifferences,laborforcesurvey,IslamicRepublicofIran *Dang(hdang@worldbank.org)issenioreconomistwiththeLivingStandardsMeasurementUnit,DevelopmentDataGroup,WorldBankandisalsoaffiliatedwithIZA,IndianaUniversity,andLondonSchoolofEconomicsandPoliticalScience;Salehi-Isfahani(salehi@vt.edu)isprofessorofeconomicsatVirginiaTechandResearchAffiliateattheMiddleEastInitiativeHarvardKennedySchool;Do(minh.nn.do@gmail.com)isavisitinglecturerwithUniversityofEconomicsandBusiness,VietnamNationalUniversity,Hanoi.WewouldliketothankFedericoBennett,NellyElmallakh,HaggayEtkes,andparticipantsatworkshopsattheWorldBankforhelpfulcommentsonearlierversionsandtoArinShahbazianforresearchassistance.WewouldliketothanktheChiefEconomist’sOfficefortheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica(MNACE)forsupportandhelpfulcommentsonanearlierdraft. 1.Introduction COVID-19hasworsenedgenderinequalitiesinmanycountriesaroundtheworld.Inparticular,thepandemicresultedinmorejoblossesandlaborincomedecreasesforwomenthanmen(DangandNguyen,2021;Alonetal..,2022).Yet,theexistingliteraturefocusesonrichercountriesandtherearefewerstudiesforpoorercountries,perhapsduetoashortageofnationallyrepresentativesurveydatathatspanthepandemicinthelatter.1Furthermore,recentstudiesoffermixedevidenceontheimpactsofCOVID-19ongendergapsinemploymentforpoorercountries. ExaminingthepandemiceffectsinIndia,Deshpande(2022)findsthatinAugust2020,forwomen,thelikelihoodofbeingemployedwas9percentagepointslowerthanformen,comparedtoApril2019,conditionalonpreviousemployment.However,byDecember2020,gendergapsinemploymentwereatthepre-pandemicDecember2019levels.Alfonsietal.(2023)findthatlockdownsimposedinUgandareducedemploymentby69%forwomenandby45%formen,andthegappersisted18monthsaftertheonsetofthepandemic.Ontheotherhand,Dang,Nguyen,andCarletto(2023)analyzeVietNam’sLaborForceSurveysspanning2015to2020andfindnegativepandemiceffectsonemployment,temporarylayoffrates,andemploymentquality,butthisstudydoesnotfinddifferentialeffectsforwomen.Halimetal.(2023)evenobservethatthepandemichasreducedthegendergapinemploymentandparticipationforIndonesia. WeofferanearlystudyonthepandemicimpactsonthelabormarketintheIslamicRepublicofIran.TheIslamicRepublicofIranoffersaninteresting,evenunique,casestudyforseveralreasons.Femalelaborforceparticipation(LFP)intheIslamicRepublicofIranisamongthelowest 1Mostexistingstudiesfordevelopingcountriesrelyonhigh-frequencyphonesurveys(Eggeretal.,2021;Khamisetal.,2021;MahmudandRiley,2021;Krafftetal.,2022;Bundervoet,Dávalos,andGarcia,2022),whichcanbepronetovariousdataqualityissues.Theseissuesincludelowresponseratesorundercoverageandshorterquestionnaireswithfewervariablesthanthetypicalhousehold