南非推动可持续发展目标：开启可持续发展目标加速发展的新途径（英）2024

2024 UnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme SouthAfrica UnlockingNewPathwaystoSDGAcceleration Acknowledgements TheSDGPushFrameworkisledbythegovernmentaspartoftheirjourneyofdevelopingroadmapstoachievetheSDGsinthecountrythroughastructuredapproachtoidentifyingtheaccelerators. ThisSDGPushpublicationisledbytheSDGIntegrationTeamofUNDP,thecountryoffice,andateamofnationalexperts.Thenationalexpertsincludeapolicyadvisor,economist,dataanalyst,andengagementfacilitator.WethankseveralUNagenciesfortheirvaluablecommentsonthedesignandimplementationofSDGPush. HowtoCitetheReport: UNDP(2024).SouthAfricaSDGPushFramework:UnlockingNewPathwaystoSDGAcceleration.NewYork,NY:UnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme. Withgeneroussupportfrom: DeutscheGesellschaftfürInternationaleZusammenarbeitGmbH(GIZ),onbehalfofFederalMinistryforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment(BMZ). UNDPistheleadingUnitedNationsorganizationfightingtoendtheinjusticeofpoverty,inequality,andclimatechange.Workingwithourbroadnetworkofexpertsandpartnersin170countries,wehelpnationstobuildintegrated,lastingsolutionsforpeopleandplanet. Learnmoreatundp.orgorfollow@UNDP.Copyright©UNDP2024.Allrightsreserved. OneUnitedNationsPlaza,NEWYORK,NY10017,USA SouthAfricaSDGPushFramework:UnlockingNewPathwaystoSDGAcceleration TableofContents 1.ExecutiveSummary4 2.Introduction6 3.SDGPushPilot:SouthAfrica8 3.1ScopingPhase8 3.2AccelerationDialogues9 3.3Modelling10 3.4Results15 4.Conclusion16 References17 TechnicalAppendices19 AppendixI:TheScopingNote-Synthesis19 AppendixII:TargetoutputforSDGPush25 AppendixIII:ModellingData32 AppendixIV:ResultsBasedAssessment-reducedSDGresultframework56 AppendixV:Calibrationoftheconsumptionparameters58 AppendixVI:CaveatstotheAnalysis60 ThisinitiativeisdevelopedbytheUNDPSDGIntegrationteam,incooperationwithDeutscheGesellschaftfürInternationaleZusammenarbeitGmbH(GIZ),onbehalfofFederalMinistryforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment(BMZ)insupportofcountriestorecoverforward. Acronyms BAUbusiness-as-usual CGEComputableGeneralEquilibrium ERRPEconomicReconstructionandRecoveryPlanGDPGrossdomesticproduct INFFIntegratedNationalFinancingFrameworkMSmicro-simulation NDPNationalDevelopmentPlanNPCNationalPlanningCommission SADCSouthernAfricanDevelopmentCommunitySDGSustainableDevelopmentGoal UNDPUnitedNationsDevelopmentProgram 1.ExecutiveSummary Despitemakingsignificantstridesindevelopmentprogress,SouthAfricafacesthepersistenttripledevelopmentchallengesofpoverty,inequality,andunemployment. Structuralchallengesandweakgrowthhaveunderminedprogresstowardreducingpoverty,heightenedbytheCOVID-19pandemic.Unemploymentreachedarecordhighof34.9percentin2021,andremainedstubbornlyhighat32.6percentin2023.1Inequalityandpovertyhaveremainedhighinthepost-apartheidera,withaGinicoefficientestimatedat0.63andpovertyheadcountratiosat40.0percentand55.5percentforlower-andupper-boundpovertylines,respectively.2Sincetheglobalrecessionof2008,SouthAfricahasexperiencedslowereconomicgrowth,withanannualeconomicgrowthrateaveraging1.1percentoverthe2009–2021period.3 SouthAfricaiscommittedtotacklingthesedevelopmentchallengesthroughboththeNationalDevelopmentPlan(NDP),thecountry’sblueprintfordevelopment,andtheUnitedNationsSustainableDevelopmentGoals(SDGs).TheGovernment’sEconomicReconstructionandRecoveryPlan(ERRP)isthemaingovernmentpolicyframeworkforaddressingthetripledevelopmentchallengesthrougheconomicgrowth,investment,andredistribution. Despitethesecommitmentsandframeworks,SouthAfricawilllikelyfallshortofitsdevelopmentgoalsandtargetsifabusiness-as-usual(BAU)approachcontinues. TheGovernmentneedstodesignpolicypackagesforstrongeconomicgrowthwhilereducingunemployment,inequality,andpoverty,payingcarefulattentiontotheimplicationsofsuchinterventionsonpublicfinances. Tolaunchthiswork,theUnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme’s(UNDP),togetherwithGovernmentcounterparts,pilotedtheSDGPushFrameworktoidentifyplausiblepathwaystotacklethepersistenttripledevelopmentchallenges. TheSDGPushFrameworkisatooltoenableMemberStatestoplananddeliverSDGbreakthroughsinavarietyofdevelopmentcontexts.ThisFrameworkcomprises:scoping,accelerationdialogues,economicmodelling,sustainablefinancing,andaccelerationpathways.Thesecomponentsareessentialinidentifyingdevelopmentgaps,challenges,anddrivers,andindevelopingpotentialinterventionstoaddresseachchallenge,andtosystematicallyassessthecosts,interlinkagesandtrade-offsrelatedtotheaccelerationplan. Basedonthescopingexerciseandaccelerationdialogueoutcomes,acombinationofpolicyscenarioswastested.Thesescenariosincludedacceleratingskillsformation,fosteringgrowthintheservicesandindustrysectors,andimplementingpoverty-alleviatingsocialgrants. Thegrantsweretestedundertwoscenarios:unconditionalandconditional,withexternalfundingassumedfortheadditionalgrantexpenditure.AbaselineBAUscenariowasestablished,anditprojectedthatthecurrenttrajectoryoflowgrowthratesisinsufficienttoachievekeySDGtargetsrelatingdirectlytopoverty,inequality,economicandunemploymentgrowthrates.Infact,BAU 1WorldBank.2023.https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/bae48ff2f