油脂周度报告：巴西遭遇洪水，收割受阻影响产量

_P0s‚"78][AD 2024“05>05 "78 "78 ?•&˘ bßZ‘I‚"780bM=9p ‚q‹c:"p>8‚c‚ Qy.J0‹ -.'˘ *?ŒM§]B|l¤F´H‚L-5˜B|!][#8) 1=20240421Qy"7 5˜<@>DP¢ Mg=9‚!]:#%C> ˘_P0s‚"78] *?H g‚, º>3» 5 rƒ0• ŒM§]B|l¤F ‚/HFVF,” D #fA‚5˜B|L1O@#>5˜B| 6 ª0 ‚ M < ^‚*?]B|f$e >· D3‚»]B| F˚F$F '#_"J ‚B| " 2=20240414Qy ˘P§‚Q A " P0s >|e <^´ 6‚> "][ DW ˙A3D» K ¢ ‚ f6`8‚D 6 -!FU ·> " AD 9D .#˚U ‚3 HQ »F ˜N”U‚ ‚3]75#æ >ƒ8o ": H 2‡>] E„]‚:" f$e =^ 7 ‚)F>ƒ8oE„P‚N”Aær>:2‡f$e ˚ ·‚ 5*7Q> 52@8‚DB|" N”A <L#l <D L5¯˜B| [>^# @#‚N…#"78 ‚|8‚ 0bM :q c ][ADN”A ¥M# LD‚"78 " 7 ·‚5*7 0-A»>F UPf•1%_"JN˙0‚'# f_"J "7 : L> Q.Jy0‹4œ .J0‹˘V*iM F1˘zhanglj@cyqh.com.cn ¸CzBCzrZ-00˘16616 OL&5˜˘B|ª0M0%="H=+U(*"u1 -$ 6=B|"M6ß..º3 1.13L[B|"M6ß.º3 1.1.1N%o!4fl[-(˚3‹H3 1.1.2,X~o!5‡e.p#"V‘¸(d7;o.¶,(&[E45!q#ƒ‘˛5 1.1.3e>78-o!4fl[45!qN0a6 1.23»B|"M6ߺ˘˚N”AFF$F.....·7 ´="M6.ß...º9 2.13L["M6.ß..º9 2.1.1ik6dX~o4!6-*WgZMM......=9 2.1.2"o+;o!-sgZ’ƒ10 2.1.3"o-¥o!78;‚^"(&-D=11 2.23»"M6˘˚<FF$.F.....·12 ?=˘"..&....<.8.)..............................13 =8p>)14 6B=|"M6ߺ 3XL[B|"M6ߺ X5˜3X˘6ª0 5˜B|6ª0 ‘8)‚ >‚5˜3]B|ª0)‰p‚98pN” Up‚!9 6p‚9 æ“BUp ‚9˚“]rp >9‘8)> ‚4,”5˜93]B|0Cpf¤’§‚6B!6p ‚9æ“BUp>9 -$"J&¨ '# _"JW`t/pM"j[CØ‚FPnß ºA">“cA"8)>e5˜B|_ ,”0˝ _"J U>EKN”# L> “A “]‚)‰<0) rR)B ‚M6 4˘5˜B|ª0)‰· 9˘ 4˘5˜B|q pL"jN”f 100 20206¸ 20226¸ 20246¸ 20216¸ 20236¸ >F6¸82Z 80 60 40 20 0 04-17 05-01 05-15 05-29 06-12 06-26 Czˇ$˘U˘SDA=Qy.J0‹Czˇ$˘W˘orldAgWeather=Qy.J0‹ 4˘5˜B|0P´H· =˘^4˘5˜B|0P´3eA· =˘^ 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2016/172017/182018/192019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 7,000 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2016/172017/182018/192019/20 09-0211-0201-0203-0205-0207-02 09-0211-0201-0203-0205-0207-02 Czˇ$˘U˘SDA=Wind=Qy.J0‹Czˇ$˘U˘SDA=Wind=Qy.J0‹ 4˘5˜B|/ 0 P·´ =˘^ 4˘5˜B|/ 0 3PeA´· =˘^ 300 2016/17 2020/21 2017/18 2021/22 2018/19 2022/23 2019/20 2023/24 2016/17 2020/21 2017/18 2021/22 2018/19 2022/23 2019/20 2023/24 250 200 150 100 50 0 09-02 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 11-02 01-02 03-02 05-02 07-02 09-0211-0201-0203-0205-0207-02 Czˇ$˘U˘SDA=Wind=Qy.J0‹ Czˇ$˘U˘SDA=Wind=Qy.J0‹ 4˘5˜B|0 K6·d =˘^ 4˘5˜B|0>ß8o3eAr· =˘^ 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2019/20 2022/23 2020/21 2023/24 2021/22 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 09-0111-0101-0103-0105-0107-01 7,000 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2016-09-012016-12-012017-03-012017-06-01 Czˇ$˘U˘SDA=Wind=Qy.J0‹Czˇ$˘U˘SDA=Wind=Qy.J0‹ 4˘5˜3]B|`H· =˘^4˘5˜B|`_#· 5˜˘y 560 540 520 500 480 460 440 420 400 6 5.5 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 20176¸20186¸20196¸20206¸ 20246¸ 20216¸ 20186¸ 20226¸ 20196¸ 20236¸ 20206¸ 20216¸ 20226¸ 20236¸ 20246¸ 1ˆ2ˆ3ˆ4ˆ5ˆ6ˆ7ˆ8ˆ9ˆ10ˆ11ˆ12ˆ1ˆ13ˆ45ˆ57ˆ69ˆ611ˆ5 Czˇ$˘N˘OPA=Wind=Qy.J0‹Czˇ$˘U˘SDA=Wind=Qy.J0‹ 4˘5˜3B|"H· =˘^ 4˘5˜3B|" · =˘^ 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 20246¸ 20206¸ 20236¸ 20186¸ 20216¸ 20196¸ 20226¸ 100 20246¸ 20206¸ 20236¸ 20186¸20196¸ 20216¸20226¸ 90 80 70 60 50 40 1ˆ2ˆ3ˆ4ˆ5ˆ6ˆ7ˆ8ˆ9ˆ10ˆ11ˆ12ˆ 1ˆ2ˆ3ˆ4ˆ5ˆ6ˆ7ˆ8ˆ9ˆ10ˆ11ˆ12ˆ Czˇ$˘U˘SDA=NOPA=Wind=Qy.J0‹ Czˇ$˘U˘SDA=NOPA=Wind=Qy.J0‹ X*?X˘ŒM§ H rƒ ]B|l¤´H ˚6UL*‚*?HrF£ƒF]F5#ŒM‚§]B|l¤>Hrƒe*?1b´]]B|qf‚‘8)>‚‹l¤)‰p9‚˜ æ“B,”U 9‚? ,9”]B|‚‘l¤>6B!!WLM<‹l¤F *‚+P8)FVF]B|H,”g>o⁄KE>c,”N”#‚H rƒ b“ HN”Ap X= ^‚B" X9‚#‘"j 0A FM.6⁄ —>*? „]B|l¤F pıXæ9‚ @pX9> *?>]B|0Hp=X^‚Bæ"X9‚)"ıX9>> 0N”fp=^‚Q˜@N”#,”=^> B-ßL;B1!‰D,”&DB*D5 Czˇ$˘C˘onab=Qy.J0‹ Czˇ$˘N˘OAA=Qy.J0‹ 4˘*?]B|0H· =˘^ 4˘*?]B|l¤)‰· 9˘ 20246¸ 2,000 20196¸ 20236¸ 20206¸ 20176¸ 20216¸ 20186¸ 20226¸ 20216¸ 20226¸ 20236¸ 20246¸ 1,600 1,200 800 400 0 1ˆ2ˆ3ˆ4ˆ5ˆ6ˆ7ˆ8ˆ9ˆ10ˆ11ˆ12ˆ 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 01-07 02-0703-07 04-0705-07 06-07 Czˇ$˘˘*?#›'=G,” Q=y.J0‹ Czˇ$˘˘*? PG=G,”=Qy.J0‹ 4˘*?]B|l¤F4˘*?LM8nr XLuXo-˘l¤ Luo- “l]B| NH”fpL*^UırææU=^> -$Luo-]B|l9´FX‚"æ28*+fE˜##> ˚9“]r:sDX‚p9]M B-ßL;B1!‰D,”&DB*D6 20166¸ 20196¸ 20226¸ 20176¸ 20206¸ 20236¸ 20186¸ 20216¸ 4˘Luo-]B|0H·=˘^4˘Luo-]B|l¤F·9˘ 250 200 150 100 50 0 100 80 60 40 20 0 2017201820192020 1ˆ3ˆ5ˆ7ˆ9ˆ11ˆ 03-2404-1405-0505-2606-1607-07 Czˇ$˘L˘uo-PG=G,”Q=y.J0‹Czˇ$˘L˘uo-PG=G,”=Qy.J0‹ 4˘Luo-]B|q pL"jN” 4˘Luo-]B|q pL"jN” Czˇ$˘W˘orldAgWeather=Qy.J0‹ Czˇ$˘W˘orldAgWeather=Qy.J0‹ X3»B|"M6ߺ˘˚N”AFF$F· #›'ƒ⁄˘c3>]B|Fææ=^X‚æ“BUpæ=^‚B"A Læ>X r>9 ]B|Fæ=^X‚æ“BU =^X‚B"AL 2021 2022 2023 2024 X>3»9>]B|f$eN”fpıæ=^‚æ>=^‚>æ= ^>L¯-v*?]B|FF$Ff$e‚3»]B|˚FF$F·> 1b·>8)>"æ‚]B|L[`Hpı=X ^‚6p)‰æpæ˙E„9N”fQX=^> N”A1b·>8)æ>3»"‚6p)‰AL‚"‚]B|` B-ßL;B1!‰D,”&DB*D7 HN”A=X^‚6p)‰æp>9 >ıC›‚c26F]B|‚-$(ıX=^‚F X=^‚F)‰9X>AH˜æ>55#F]B|X =^>L¯-v*?]B|FF$Ff$e‚3»]B|3]ߺ<FF$Fo”‚F )‰> 4˘c3]B|f$eN”f·=^4˘c3]B|FH·=˘^ 1,250 1,150 1,050 950 850 750 650 550 450 350 20246¸20176¸20186¸20196¸ 20206¸20216¸20226¸20236¸ 1ˆ3ˆ5ˆ7ˆ9ˆ11ˆ 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 20246¸20186¸20196¸20206¸ 20216¸20226¸20236¸ 1ˆ3ˆ5ˆ7ˆ9ˆ11ˆ Czˇ$˘˘G,”=Qy.J0‹Czˇ$˘#˘›'q5¤=Wind=Qy.J0‹ 4˘c3"‚6p)‰·9˘ 4˘c3"‚`H· =˘^ 20186¸20196¸20206¸20216¸ 9020226¸20236¸20246¸ 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 250 200 150 100 50 0 20186¸20196¸20206¸20216¸ 20226¸20236¸20246¸ 1ˆ13ˆ85ˆ67ˆ59ˆ211ˆ31ˆ13ˆ65ˆ67ˆ69ˆ411ˆ6 Czˇ$˘˘G,”Q=y.0J‹Czˇ$˘˘G,”=Qy.J0‹ B-ßL;B1!‰D,”&DB*D8 ´ = " M6ß